The Contrarian Investor Podcast

The Contrarian Investor Podcast

contrarianpod.com
Giving voice to those who question a prevailing narrative in global financial markets


Coronavirus Crisis Continues: Expect ‘Rolling’ Recessions
Mar 23 • 53 min
Rachel Ziemba, a geo-economic and country risk expert, joins the podcast to discuss the continuing, and intensifying economic impact from the coronavirus. It’s become clear that the crisis has caused a demand shock that will likely bring “rolling…
The Medical Opinion on Coronavirus: A Bonafide Doctor Shares His Views
Mar 20 • 26 min
Dr. Robert Bednarz joins the podcast to provide his professional opinion on the coronavirus: Just how serious of a health crisis is COVID-19? And how long might it persist until economies around the world can spring to life again?
Coronavirus Crisis: Assessing the Economic Damage and the Way Forward
Mar 17 • 47 min
Marc Chandler, a political economist and currently managing partner at Bannockburn Global Forex, joins the podcast to provide his assessment of the coronavirus impact on the global economy. Over the course of a 45-minutes conversation, Chapman holds court…
Oil Sell-Off Special Edition: Inside The Saudi-Russia Supply Standoff
Mar 10 • 15 min
Kirill Zadov, political analyst at Russian-language radio station RUSA Radio, joins the podcast in this special episode to discuss the recent sell-off in oil prices. Zadov has some unique insights into the Russian oil economy and the political economy of…
Defending Value, Shorting Selectively With Tobias Carlisle
Mar 3 • 32 min
Tobias Carlisle, founder of Acquirers Fund LLC, is well known in value investing circles. He defends this method while also pointing to the short opportunities that have emerged recently. Where the macro picture is concerned, the coronavirus is still…
Global Crisis Investing Through ‘Psychological Arbitrage’
Feb 18 • 44 min
Philip Reade, founder and managing partner at Helm Investment Partners, joins the podcast to discuss his approach to crisis investing on a global basis. Reade does not follow the “buy when everybody else panics” maxim. Instead, he searches first for a…
Private Credit is Fentanyl, With Gregory Obenshain, Verdad Capital
Feb 11 • 29 min
Gregory Obenshain, director of credit at Verdad Capital, discusses his concerns about private credit investing. Content: Private equity has become the dominant player in this market (4:02), the lending is a lot more dangerous and indeed riskier than the…
News Headlines: The ‘Subtle Fallacy’ Confounding Investors
Jan 29 • 37 min
Nicholas Reece of Merk Research shares his thesis that there is a “subtle fallacy” that events in the news are important to the global economy and financial markets. This is due to evolutionary biography, behavioral biases, and the nature of the news…
Energy Markets at a Turning Point, With Economist Peter Sainsbury
Jan 22 • 32 min
Economist and energy specialist Peter Sainsbury joins the podcast to discuss his thesis, that the fossil fuel industry faces a dilemma similar to what confounded big tobacco a generation ago. Content: Peter Sainsbury introduces his thesis (1:59). The…
The Next Market Meltdown is Coming
Jan 14 • 70 min
Chris Stanton, chief investment officer at Sunrise Capital, rejoins the podcast to discuss his bearish views on the market at the start of 2020. There are reasons to believe a market correction is overdue, Stanton says. Risk is everywhere: geopolitical,…
Healthcare, Russian Natural Gas and Other Ideas for Investing in 2020, With Lukasz Tomicki of LRT Capital
Dec 18, 2019 • 35 min
Lukasz Tomicki of LRT Capital Management joins the podcast to discuss his investing strategy and ideas for 2020. Contents: The case for Russian natural gas companies (3:05) and healthcare stocks (5:28). What’s to like about UnitedHealth (9:24). Background…
Unpacking ‘The Finance Curse,’ With Nicholas Shaxson, Author
Dec 5, 2019 • 41 min
Nicholas Shaxson, author of The Finance Curse, joins the podcast to discuss his thesis, that the financial sector is at the root of many problems facing economies and society.
Investors’ Worsening Mood is a Bullish Indicator: Nick From Demonetized Blog
Nov 20, 2019 • 31 min
As investors’ collective mood and risk appetite worsens, the outlook for risk assets improves proportionally. The author of the Demonetized Blog joins the podcast to discuss this concept and what it means for the economy and markets going forward.
Andrew Redleaf on Today’s Low-Rate, Low-Growth, Restricted-Access-to-Capital World
Nov 12, 2019 • 25 min
Andrew Redleaf is best known as the founder of Whitebox Advisors, a hedge fund that at its peak managed $6 billion. He discusses his thesis that there is a widening gap between those who have access to cheap capital and those who do not. Content: The…
The Dangers of Interest Rate Volatility Risk, With Nancy Davis of Quadratic Capital
Oct 28, 2019 • 27 min
Nancy Davis of Quadratic Capital joins the podcast to discuss the danger of interest rate volatility risk. The market is at “peak confidence of central banks being able to control markets” (2:27), as evidenced by the historic low in all gauges of interest…
Peter Borish on Economic Cycles, the Case for Active Investment Management
Oct 16, 2019 • 32 min
Peter Borish is a founding partner at Tudor Investment Corp and current chief strategist at Quad Group. In his long career on Wall Street, Borish has seen multiple market cycles and met with and allocated to many hedge fund managers. He shares his wisdom…
No Recession Imminent, Adam Johnson of Bullseye Brief Provides Bullish Stock Picks
Oct 9, 2019 • 24 min
Adam Johnson of Bullseye Brief joins the podcast to discuss his optimistic views on the US economy, stock picks to take advantage of this situation, and his background as an investor. Content: Labor markets, consumer spending speak to strong economic…
The Need for Non-Consensus Investing, With Rupal J. Bhansali
Sep 25, 2019 • 14 min
Rupal J. Bhansali joins the podcast to discuss her just-published book “Non-Consensus Investing: Being Right When Everyone Else is Wrong.” Ms. Bhansali is the chief investment officer, international and global equities, at Ariel Investments in New York.…
Microinvesting Primer and Idea Generation, with GeoInvesting’s Maj Soueidan
Sep 18, 2019 • 39 min
Maj Soueidan, co-founder of GeoInvesting LLC, joins the podcast to discuss his approach to microcap investing, supplying one of his favorite stock picks. Content: The case for microcaps (1:25), how to find ideas (5:14), sectors (9:04), monitoring and…
The Coming ‘Melt Up’ in Markets, With David Hunter of Contrarian Macro Advisors
Sep 4, 2019 • 33 min
David Hunter, Chief Macro Strategist at Contrarian Macro Advisors, discusses the current state of the economic cycle and why risk assets have a final upleg left before the onset of the bear market. The Fed is behind the curve (2:00), the coming bust…
2/10 Yield Curve Inversion: No Ill Effects for US Economy, Says Barry Knapp
Aug 19, 2019 • 20 min
Barry Knapp of Ironsides Macroeconomics joins the podcast to discuss the 2-year/10-year yield curve inversion. This gauge is viewed as a harbinger of recession. But while global trade has clearly slowed, U.S. economic expansion is in no immediate danger…
Emotional Investing With Denise K Shull
Aug 13, 2019 • 24 min
Denise K Shull joins the podcast to argue against the platitude that emotions have no place in investing. Identifying and managing emotions does not only play an integral role in investing, but can in fact hold one of the keys to succeeding at all levels…
Choosing Battles in Emerging Markets, With Pembroke’s Gregory Mariasch
Jul 31, 2019 • 35 min
Gregory Mariasch, partner at Pembroke Emerging Markets, makes the case for his particular brand of long-short investing. Contrary to the prevailing opinion, there are opportunities in emerging markets that are less correlated to trade war issues. Not your…
China and the Everything Bubble, With Kevin Smith of Crescat Capital
Jul 16, 2019 • 32 min
Kevin Smith of hedge fund firm Crescat Capital in Denver joins the podcast to discuss his views on China and other asset bubbles, which he considers ripe for implosion. China heading into an economic downturn (2:00) and why its currency hasn’t faced any…
US Expansion May Continue For Four More Years, Says Commerce Trust Chief Economist
Jul 1, 2019 • 22 min
Scott Colbert, chief economist at Commerce Trust Company in St. Louis, disagrees with the prevailing consensus that the US expansion is at or near recession. While growth may have slowed, the economy is in much better shape than is believed by many, with…
Mini Episode: US-China Impasse Goes Well Beyond Tariffs, Says Jim Chanos
Jun 26, 2019 • 4 min
The market has begun to price in the likelihood of a US-China trade deal. But this would not be the end of China’s problems with its biggest trading partner, says renowned short-seller (and China bear) Jim Chanos in this short clip.
Timeshare Companies: Unloved, Misunderstood, Underappreciated
Jun 17, 2019 • 23 min
Shares of timeshare companies have not done particularly well lately. That is understandable considering the options investors have elsewhere as well as the state of the economic cycle in the US. This week’s guest, Michael Kahan of North Peak Capital…
Reports of Retail’s Death Have Been Greatly Exaggerated, With ValueStockGeek
Jun 11, 2019 • 23 min
Retail is dead. This is the conventional wisdom. It would take a very wise (and contrarian) individual to want to oppose it. But that’s exactly what this week’s guest is all about. @ValueStockGeek has spotted some opportunities in retail stocks. Yes,…
Bonus Episode: Jim Chanos Speech at Connecticut Hedge Fund Association
Jun 7, 2019 • 45 min
Renowned short-seller Jim Chanos spoke at the Connecticut Hedge Fund Association’s quarterly meeting on June 6. This is a recording of his speech. In his 45-minute address, Chanos discussed Tesla, China, kidney dialysis companies, and a host of other…
Governance Arbitrage, With Henry D. Wolfe
Jun 4, 2019 • 26 min
The general assumption that management and governance of public companies are efficient, is false. So says Henry D. Wolfe in his recently-released book, “Governance Arbitrage: Blowing up the public company governance model to maximize long-term…
The Contrarian Opportunity in Puerto Rico, with Tobias Carlisle of Acquirers Funds
May 28, 2019 • 20 min
Almost all headlines from Puerto Rico are negative these days, but there is a way to profit from all the doom and gloom, according to Tobias Carlisle of Acquirers Funds. Content: Background on Tobias and his fund (0:56), the debate over Tesla (5:26),…
Leverage Can Be a Good Thing, With David Kreinces of ETF Portfolio Management
May 21, 2019 • 27 min
Leverage has a bad reputation that is no longer justified, according to David Kreinces of ETF Portfolio Management. Proper use of leverage can help investors produce alpha where other strategies fall short. Treasuries as a shock absorber (2:55), why price…
AMC, GOGO Present an Opportunity: Mark Jones of Pragmatic Capital
May 14, 2019 • 34 min
Shares of AMC Entertainment and Gogo have had a tough time of it lately. But there is a lot that the market is missing, says this week’s guest, Mark Jones of Pragmatic Capital. Why the cyclicality of the movie business (5:00) and Disney’s production…
The Case for Mining Stocks, with Matt Zabloski, Delbrook Capital
May 7, 2019 • 25 min
The metals and mining sector of the equities market has effectively gone nowhere for more than a decade. That may be about to change, according to Matt Zabloski of Delbrook Capital. Copper faces a supply/demand imbalance (4:30). Electric vehicles will…
Spinoffs create value in equity markets, with Jim Osman, Edge Consulting Group
Apr 30, 2019 • 19 min
This year’s rally in equity markets has not been equally kind to all sectors of the market. DowDupont Inc. has seen relatively muted returns this year, especially compared to the broader indices. The company spun off Dow, its material science division, on…
Markets Underestimate the Risk of Major Corrections: Sunrise Capital’s Chris Stanton
Apr 23, 2019 • 41 min
The 2019 recovery in risk assets is at an important juncture. As the market looks for a catalyst that could lead to a “melt-up”, pockets of risk are accumulating. Sunrise Capital’s Chris Stanton tells listeners what to look for. 04:03 - The dangers of…
The Contrarian Investor Podcast: Pilot Episode
Apr 8, 2019 • 33 min
The inverted yield curve, seen as a perfect indicator of recessions, is perhaps not appropriate at this juncture. Instead, the U.S. economy is poised for further growth ahead, led by the consumer. A bullish sign for bank stocks. Guest: Barry Knapp of…