Stolen Signs

Stolen Signs
Kendall Guillemette and Harry Pavlidis discuss baseball statistics, as well as look for the stories and people behind the stats.

36: Dingers, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and ARod
Apr 25, 2019 • 21 min
We talk about the Great Home Run Surge of 2019, the Rabbit Ball, Slippier in the Air Ball, the call up of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Alex Rodriguez on YouTube. Links: Moonshot: The Baseball Is Juiced (Again) by Robert Arthur Moonshot: Exit Velocity Is…
35: New MLB Rules with Jared Diamond of the Wall Street Journal
Mar 14, 2019 • 60 min
We talked with Jared Diamond about recent MLB rules changes. Specifically related to one of our favorite subjects, two-way players. We address how teams will have to designate players as, pitchers, hitters, or two-way and what effect those rules will have…
34: Projection Roundtable with the creators of ZiPS, Steamer, THE BAT and Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA
Feb 21, 2019 • 50 min
We chatted with the creators and maintainers of four major projection systems, ZiPS (Dan Szymborski), Steamer (Jared Cross), THE BAT (Derek Carty) and Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA (Harry Pavlidis) about how their systems are created, how the past is used…
33: PECOTA 2019 with Jonathan Judge and Rob McQuown
Feb 7, 2019 • 51 min
Deep dive into DRC+ and PECOTA with Jonathan Judge and Rob McQuown of Baseball Prospectus. Stats Chat DRC Updates and Improvements DRC+ and Observables All DRC+ coverage Projected Standings based on PECOTA How to watch Serie del Caribe 2019
32: How big can this Hall get?
Dec 15, 2018 • 53 min
Shohei Ohtani revisited, baseball Hall of Fame bar lowering and how it affects who gets in, lining up optimal player development and what happens when you launch a new statistic. Available at Baseball Prospectus
31: Changing Pitchers, Changing Players, Changing Owners
Nov 15, 2018 • 54 min
Harry and Kendall talk about the quantifying The Opener phenomenon, Bill James' comments about replacing players, trying to figure out if regular baseball fans could visibly tell the difference between top MLB talent and replacement level talent. Then cap…
30: In the playoffs (and always) pitching and catching are important
Oct 25, 2018 • 25 min
In the playoffs (and always) pitching and catching are important Donate to the Lupus Foundation Required Reading The unlucky legacy of the 2018 Houston Astros by Sam Miller Joel Sherman writes about the plight of catchers
29: Building a Baseball Team for the Playoffs and the Future
Oct 4, 2018 • 58 min
We talk about how you build a baseball team for the playoffs and the future. It’s good to talk about baseball. Enjoy the playoffs.
28: Women’s Baseball World Cup and the Rise of the 100 MPH Pitcher
Aug 23, 2018 • 50 min
Harry and Kendall talk about the Women's Baseball World Cup, then look at how the number of đŸ”„high velocityđŸ”„pitchers has increased over the last 10 years. They wrap up with a discussion of how bullpen usage affects lineups and how it might affect your…
27: Bringing numbers to the booth with Jason Benetti
Jul 14, 2018 • 59 min
We visit with Jason Benetti, television play by play announcer for the Chicago White Sox. We talk with him about his start in the business, taking over for a broadcasting legend, how he integrates Steve Stone's first hand knowledge, with the plethora of…
26: It seems the seam material has a material impact with Dr. Meredith Wills
Jun 14, 2018 • 70 min
Talking about the materials that make up a baseball with Dr. Meredith Wills. We also revisit two-way players, dig into defensive metrics and why they're difficult, and are reminded that everything old is new again. How one tiny change to the baseball may…
25: Sergio Romo is The Opener with R.J. Anderson
May 31, 2018 • 71 min
R.J. Anderson of CBS Sports came on to talk with us about the Rays recent usage of Sergio Romo as a starting pitcher. We talk about whether this concept will continue and if there may be other teams willing to try it out. We also talk with Anthony Rescan…
24: Report of the Committee Studying Home Run Rates in Major League Baseball
May 24, 2018 • 111 min
We discuss the Report of the Committee Studying Home Run Rates in Major League Baseball released on May 24, 2018. We talk with committee chair Dr. Alan Nathan, and committee member Dr. Dan Brooks as well as radar and target tracking research engineer, Dr.…
23: Evaluating Baseball Statistics with Sam Miller of ESPN
May 17, 2018 • 74 min
Sam Miller joined us to talk about his recent article about evaluating Statcast's new Pop Time metric. Surprising exactly no one, we also talk about Shohei Ohtani, again. And take a look at Robinson CaƄo's Hall of Fame candidacy. ‘Pop’ science: Your guide…
21: Baseball is Back
Apr 6, 2018 • 61 min
Baseball is back and we're all so glad
20: Spin Rates and Designing Pitches with Jeff Long
Mar 15, 2018 • 81 min
2:32 Revisiting PECOTA team projections 10:44 Announce winners of The Shift by Russell A. Carleton giveaway 14:40 Spin Rates and Pitch Design with Jeff Long 1:08:45 Home Runs Have Surged in MLB — Baseball Experts Explain Why NBC Left Field (h/t Rob…
19: Park Factors and Pitch Design
Mar 1, 2018 • 65 min
When we talk about park adjusted stats, and park factors, what does all of that mean? How do we arrive at those numbers and how do we account for changes over time? We also talk about "pitch design" and how that combines analytical data and player…
18: Making PECOTA with Jonathan Judge and Rob McQuown
Feb 16, 2018 • 76 min
We talk with Jonathan Judge and Rob McQuown, who oversee Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA projections to get some more insight into how the projections are made, what's new this year, and of course hip hop. Sam Miller asks how much we'd be willing to endure to…
17: These Are Not the Robot Umpires You’re Looking For
Feb 1, 2018 • 64 min
We talk to Jeff Long, Sean O'Rourke, Wayne Boyle, and Russell Carleton about their recent Pitching Week article about the Robot Strikezone and Robot Umpires. New Power, Command, Stamina pitching metrics from Baseball Prospectus Updating Pitch Tunnels - by…
16: Inning(s) Eaters and Aces
Jan 18, 2018 • 57 min
Stolen Signs is back. Harry and Kendall talk about the slow offseason, collusion and ideas on how to change the economics of baseball. After a short break (14:05) they discuss new research by Duke University that looks into neurological and motor skills…
15: Twas the Episode Before Christmas
Dec 22, 2017 • 102 min
We touch on many issues of the day as we wrap up 2017 in style. 3:10 - Marlins firesale fallout - Dan LeBatard show 17:05 - Bob Bowman forced out at MLBAM 23:38 - Shohei Ohtani ZIPS, Steamer and PECOTA projections 35:20 - The Case for Long-Form Movement…
14: Shohei Otani and Japanese Baseball with Ben Lindbergh and Kaz Yamazaki
Dec 7, 2017 • 83 min
We talk with Ben Lindbergh and Kaz Yamazaki about the NPB posting system, differences between the mounds, balls, culture of MLB and NPB and dig a little deeper into some of the myths about Japanese pitchers coming over to MLB. We also look into the…
13: Wins Above Replacement discussion with Sean Forman (bWAR), David Cameron (fWAR), Greg Matthews (openWAR), Rob McQuown and Jonathan Judge (WARP)
Nov 29, 2017 • 62 min
We welcome Sean Forman from Baseball Reference, David Cameron from FanGraphs, Greg Matthews from openWAR, Rob McQuown and Jonathan Judge from Baseball Prospectus to the show. With all the recent discussion about Wins Above Replacement statistics, we…
12: Making Sausage and Catching Up
Nov 16, 2017 • 85 min
Harry and Kendall look back at the World Series, discuss the Cy Young awards and the BBWAA vote has lined up with BP's pitching metrics over the past few years. Next up is a preview of some new pitching statistics that the Baseball Prospectus stats team…
11: Unusual Paths to the Rotation and Everything Old is New Again with Jarrett Seidler
Oct 26, 2017 • 62 min
This week Harry and Kendall talk to Jarrett Seidler from the Baseball Prospectus Prospects team about the cyclical nature of baseball in general, and analytics specifically. Harry and Kendall also take a closer look at how pitchers end up in the bullpen…
10: Looking back at PECOTA
Oct 12, 2017 • 76 min
We start by talking about projection systems in general, then dive into 2017 PECOTA team projections. We look to see how adding in actual playing time affects the team totals. Then we talk about individual players that out-performed and under-performed…
9: Playoff Formats and Rosters w/ Rob Arthur, Ben Diamond, Greg Matthews, and Travis Sawchik
Sep 28, 2017 • 85 min
We sat down with Rob Arthur, Ben Diamond, Greg Matthews, and Travis Sawchik to talk about the MLB playoffs. We touched on playoff formats (past, present, and future?) and then moved on to talk about roster construction and optimization for the playoffs.…
8: Pitcher Similarity Scores
Sep 22, 2017 • 58 min
This week Harry and Kendall discuss pitcher similarity scores. Where did they come from? What are they? What can they be used for? And what might they evolve into. This week Kendall learned a little about Ted Williams, and Harry learned something from…
7: The Rise of the Two-Way Player
Sep 16, 2017 • 66 min
With the news of Shohei Ohtani's imminent posting from the NPB, this episode we talk with Sung Min Kim from the Sporting News about the posting system as well as a closer look at Ohtani. Harry and Kendall then discuss the precedence of two-way players in…
6: Baseball and Psychology with Dan Brooks and Russell Carleton
Sep 8, 2017 • 69 min
This week Harry and Kendall welcome Dan Brooks from Brooks Baseball and Russell Carleton from Baseball Prospectus. We talk with Dan and Russell about how baseball relates to their professional field of study, psychology. Russell has a new book coming out,…
5: Sabermetrics Timeline
Sep 1, 2017 • 61 min
We go through a rough outline of the history of sabermetrics. And we also want to ask for your help. We're sure we missed things. If you know of so key point in the history of sabermetrics, please help us add to our list.
4: Stats and Storytellers with Jonah Keri
Aug 25, 2017 • 72 min
This is the first in a new recurring series called Stats and Storytellers. We're excited to welcome Jonah Keri as our first guest. Our conversation was wide-reaching and really interesting. We talked about Jonah's recent article about the Expos mascot,…
3: Not Just Academic: Rob Arthur and Jim Albert on the Hot Hand
Aug 17, 2017 • 72 min
This week we talked to Rob Arthur of FiveThirtyEight and Jim Albert, professor of mathematics and statistics at Bowling Green State University about Rob's article Baseball’s ‘Hot Hand’ Is Real, co-authored by Greg Matthews assistant professor of…
2: DIPs, FIP, DRA and You
Aug 15, 2017 • 85 min
On Episode 2 of Stolen Signs we briefly recap SaberSeminar 2017, answer a listener email about how to learn more about baseball stats, and we have a discussion about pitching metrics with Jonathan Judge of Baseball Prospectus and Neil Weinberg of…
1: Welcome to the Stolen Signs Podcast
Aug 1, 2017 • 55 min
This is episode 1 of the Stolen Signs podcast, a new podcast from the stats team at Baseball Prospectus. Your hosts Kendall Guillemette and Harry Pavlidis introduce the show, themselves and talk to Jeff Long and Kate Morrison about their presentation at…