FiveThirtyEight Politics

FiveThirtyEight Politics

fivethirtyeight.com/podcasts
Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team cover the latest in politics, tracking the issues and “game-changers” every week.


The Second Debate Is Over And The Final Stage Of The Campaign Is Here
Oct 23 • 34 min
The crew reacts to the second and final presidential debate of the 2020 campaign.
How Voting Is Going So Far
Oct 21 • 42 min
Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux and Nathaniel Rakich join the podcast to discuss how voting laws and procedures have changed ahead of the 2020 vote and how they are being litigated.
The Most Competitive Races In 2020
Oct 20 • 31 min
Micah Cohen and Sarah Frostenson key in on the most competitive races in the 2020 election. They are not actually in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, even though those states may be the most important for winning the election.
Embrace The Uncertainty
Oct 19 • 58 min
The crew discusses how Biden’s lead is similar or different from Clinton’s in 2016. They also consider what kind of agenda Democrats might pursue were they to win full control of government this fall.
Model Talk: Why Democrats’ Chances Of Winning The Senate Have Increased
Oct 16 • 34 min
In this installment of Model Talk, Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the current election forecasts and answer questions from listeners.
What We Learned From The Amy Coney Barrett Hearings
Oct 15 • 46 min
Judge Amy Coney Barrett is on track to become the next Supreme Court Justice. Perry Bacon Jr. and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux discuss what we learned from her nomination hearings and how she would shape the Court.
The Sun Belt Could Decide Control Of The Senate
Oct 12 • 54 min
The crew looks at the state of the 2020 race in the Sun Belt states and also considers how Trump might be able to pull off a re-election win.
Model Talk: Trump’s Position Worsens
Oct 9 • 37 min
In this installment of Model Talk, Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the latests movements in the 2020 election forecasts.
Pence And Harris Evade Questions In VP Debate
Oct 8 • 32 min
The crew reacts to the first and only vice presidential debate.
What We Know About The President’s Health
Oct 5 • 46 min
During the four days since President Trump was diagnosed with coronavirus, the public has received limited and conflicting information about his health status. To make sense of the limited information we do have, the crew spoke with emergency room doctor…
Emergency Podcast: Trump Tests Positive For COVID-19
Oct 2 • 22 min
The podcast team reacts to the news that President Trump tested positive for COVID-19.
Is The Supreme Court Losing Legitimacy?
Oct 1 • 49 min
In response to Republicans’ move to fill a Supreme Court vacancy so close to the election, some Democrats have floated the idea of expanding or restructuring the court. In this installment of the podcast, law professor Daniel Epps speaks with Galen Druke…
Trump Interrupts To Point Of Chaos In First Debate
Sep 30 • 37 min
The crew reacts to the first 2020 presidential election debate.
The Politics Of Trump’s Tax Returns
Sep 28 • 53 min
The New York Times reported on Sunday that President Trump paid $750 dollars in federal income taxes in 2016 and 2017, and no federal income tax during ten of the previous fifteen years due to reported business losses. In this installment of the…
Trump Refuses To Commit To A Peaceful Transfer Of Power
Sep 24 • 44 min
In this emergency episode of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew reacts to the news that President Trump refused to commit to a peaceful transfer of power should he lose the 2020 election.
What Comes Next In The Fight To Fill Ginsburg’s Seat
Sep 21 • 64 min
So far, two Republican Senators — Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski — have announced their opposition to filling the Supreme Court seat that once belonged to Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg prior to the 2020 election. In this installment of the podcast, the…
Emergency Podcast: The SCOTUS Vacancy
Sep 19 • 27 min
In this emergency installment of the podcast, the crew discusses the implications of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s passing and the new vacancy on the court.
Model Talk: Democrats Are Slightly Favored To Win The Senate
Sep 18 • 42 min
FiveThirtyEight has launched its 2020 Senate forecast model. In this episode of Model Talk, Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the odds the chamber will flip.
Trump Narrows The Gap With Latino Voters
Sep 14 • 56 min
The crew talks to pollster Carlos Odio about political trends amongst Latino voters. They also ask whether polls in the Midwest have corrected their biases and if scandals still matter.
How Ohio Is Preparing For A Pandemic Election
Sep 11 • 38 min
Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose speaks with Galen Druke about Ohio’s preparations for Election Day amid the coronavirus pandemic.
The 2020 Electoral Map Could Get Interesting
Sep 8 • 52 min
The crew discusses which states could potentially be competitive in the 2020 election and asks, “good use of polling or bad use of polling?”
Model Talk: Trump’s Electoral College Advantage
Sep 3 • 44 min
Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss how the 2020 presidential forecast has changed and answer questions from listeners.
The Media Is Getting Ahead Of Itself On Kenosha
Aug 31 • 53 min
The crew looks at whether there is evidence for the idea that urban unrest will harm Biden’s chances in the 2020 election. They also preview the Democratic Senate primary race in Massachusetts between Rep. Joe Kennedy and Sen. Ed Markey.
RNC Night 4: How Trump Used His 5,680 Words
Aug 28 • 30 min
The crew reacts to the fourth and final night of the 2020 Republican National Convention.
RNC Night 3: Pence Makes A Law And Order Appeal
Aug 27 • 25 min
The crew reacts to the third night of the 2020 Republican National Convention.
RNC Night 2: Cognitive Dissonance
Aug 26 • 29 min
The crew reacts to the second night of the 2020 Republican National Convention.
RNC Night 1: Trumpism vs. Traditionalism
Aug 25 • 39 min
The crew reacts to the first night of the 2020 Republican National Convention.
DNC Night 4: Biden Pitches Himself As A Good Guy
Aug 21 • 41 min
The crew reacts to the fourth night of the 2020 Democratic National Convention.
DNC Night 3: Harris Fills A Historic Role
Aug 20 • 34 min
The crew reacts to the third night of the 2020 Democratic National Convention.
DNC Night 2: Democrats Aren’t Sure Who They Are
Aug 19 • 31 min
The crew reacts to the second night of the 2020 Democratic National Convention.
DNC Night 1: Michelle Obama Rips Trump
Aug 18 • 41 min
The crew reacts to the first night of the 2020 Democratic National Convention.
Model Talk: The 2020 Forecast Is Live!
Aug 12 • 32 min
FiveThirtyEight’s 2020 presidential election forecast is live! In this edition of “Model Talk,” Nate Silver and Galen Druke break down what is new in this year’s forecast and where the uncertainty lies.
Emergency Podcast: Harris Is Biden’s VP Pick
Aug 11 • 30 min
The crew reacts to Joe Biden’s announcement that Kamala Harris will be his running mate.
The Tokenization Of The Veepstakes
Aug 10 • 48 min
Joe Biden is expected to announce his running mate this week and the crew discusses the latest speculation over who it might be. They also compare Biden’s current standing in the polls to Clinton’s standing at this time in 2016 — her peak of the overall…
It’s Not Just The Economy, Stupid
Aug 3 • 51 min
After the release of historically bad GDP data, the crew discusses how well economic data can predict the outcome of an election. They also discuss the potential consequences of President Trump casting doubt on the legitimacy of the 2020 election.
A GOP Congressman Who Might Not Vote For Trump
Jul 30 • 27 min
Rep. Will Hurd of Texas’s 23rd Congressional District joins the podcast. He is one of only four Republicans in the House still representing a district that Hillary Clinton won in 2016 and he is the only Black Republican in the chamber. He is also retiring…
Biden’s VP Pick Could Be Days Away
Jul 27 • 68 min
According to the timeframe Biden laid out, he could announce his choice for a running mate as soon as the end of this week. The crew discusses the upsides and downsides of his various choices.
The U.S. Still Isn’t Prepared For A Pandemic Election
Jul 23 • 39 min
In March, it became clear that states needed to reconfigure in-person voting and significantly scale up mail voting so that Americans could vote during a pandemic. Since then, we’ve seen postponed elections, consolidated polling places, long lines, mail…
There Aren’t Secret Trump Voters
Jul 20 • 56 min
A recent poll showed that the majority of Pennsylvanians think that people in their community secretly support Trump. The crew explains why that is unlikely. They also consider the future of Black politics as politicians from the Civil Rights Era — like…
White Democrats Are Wary Of Big Ideas To Address Racial Inequality
Jul 16 • 49 min
In recent weeks, public opinion has moved significantly in favor of Black Lives Matter and more people have taken the view that Black people face discrimination in America. But is there public support for policies that could address that discrimination?…
COVID-19 Deaths Are Rising. What Will The U.S. Do?
Jul 13 • 54 min
The crew discusses whether Americans and politicians are in agreement on how to respond to the recent surge in coronavirus cases. The also interrogate a lesson that some Democrats took away from the 2016 election — that the party should focus less on…
Conservatives Didn’t Get The SCOTUS They Wanted This Term
Jul 9 • 32 min
FiveThirtyEight legal reporter Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux joins Galen Druke to look back at a U.S. Supreme Court term full of consequential cases. They also unpack one the final rulings of the term, which permits prosecutors to subpoena the president’s…
How Trump Could Improve His Electoral Odds
Jul 6 • 56 min
The crew considers various strategies that President Trump and Republicans could use to improve their electoral prospects this fall — ranging from a new running mate to a vacancy on the U.S. Supreme Court.
How The GOP Chose To Be A White Party
Jul 2 • 41 min
FiveThirtyEight’s Clare Malone discusses the history of how the GOP became an overwhelmingly white party. Her article on the topic is titled, “The Republican Choice: How a party spent decades making itself white.”
Biden Is Currently Competitive In Georgia And Texas
Jun 29 • 45 min
The crew looks at new polling that shows the clearest picture so far of the presidential race in battleground states. It isn’t good for Trump.
New Voter Registrations Have Nosedived During COVID-19
Jun 25 • 32 min
FiveThirtyEight’s Nathaniel Rakich and Kaleigh Rogers analyze data showing that the number of people registering to vote has fallen off a cliff during the coronavirus pandemic
Progressives Challenge The Democratic Establishment
Jun 22 • 48 min
The crew looks at the dynamic between Democratic upstarts and the establishment as primary voters head to the polls in New York and Kentucky.
Model Talk: Biden Leads Trump By 9 Nationally
Jun 18 • 41 min
In this edition of Model Talk, Nate and Galen discuss FiveThirtyEight’s newly published presidential election polling averages.
Views Of BLM Have Shifted. What Happens Next?
Jun 15 • 53 min
The crew discusses the ways that public opinion on racism has changed during the past three weeks and ask how it will affect our politics.
The Protests Appear To Be Working
Jun 12 • 25 min
New York Times writer Mara Gay and FiveThirtyEight contributor Shom Mazumder join the podcast to discuss the efficacy of the anti-police violence protests so far.
Americans Don’t Like How Trump Is Handling Multiple Crises
Jun 8 • 55 min
The podcast crew looks at President Trump’s latest polling for handling the pandemic and mass protests. They also discuss why young voters aren’t enthusiastic about Biden.
Protests, Then And Now
Jun 4 • 45 min
Prof. Yohuru Williams joins Perry Bacon Jr. and Galen Druke to discuss how today’s anti-police violence protests compare with past protest movements.
The Data Behind Police Violence
Jun 1 • 59 min
Sam Sinyangwe joins the podcast to discuss police violence data and the politics of the protests that have spread across the country.
What Biden’s VP Picks Say About Him
May 28 • 34 min
Perry Bacon Jr. and Julia Azari join the podcast to discuss the process of choosing a VP and what that choice says about the candidate and the party.
Questions About Biden And Trump’s Bases
May 26 • 61 min
The crew discusses a gaffe Biden made during a conversation about black voters and debates the findings of a new study about white working class voters in the 2016 election.
One Virus, A World Full Of Responses
May 21 • 44 min
The COVID-19 pandemic has shown how many countries, with different political systems, handle a very similar crisis — and how the public reacts.
Does Trump Really Want A Fight With Obama?
May 18 • 53 min
The crew looks at evidence that the coronavirus response has grown more partisan. They also discuss the rationale for an election year conflict between Obama and Trump.
Why COVID-19 Conspiracy Theories Are Spreading
May 14 • 45 min
Political scientist Joe Uscinski joins the podcast to discuss the spread of COVID-19 conspiracy theories — why they’ve formed and what can be done about them.
Americans, Not Politicians, Will Decide How We Reopen
May 11 • 48 min
The podcast crew discusses the politics and practicalities of states reopening amid the COVID-19 pandemic. They also consider which party is ahead in the race for the Senate.
What The 14.7% Unemployment Rate Means
May 8 • 32 min
Former Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics Erica Groshen joins the podcast to discuss the latest jobs report, which showed a record unemployment level.
Biden Responds To Sexual Assault Allegation
May 4 • 60 min
The team discusses the politics of Tara Reade’s accusations of sexual assault against Biden and Biden’s denial. They also weigh the impact of a Justin Amash run for president.
The U.S. Is Starting To Reopen. Is It Ready?
Apr 30 • 36 min
States around the country are beginning to reopen. Professor Crystal Watson of the Johns Hopkins School of Public Health discusses the systems they should have in place.
Is COVID-19 Already Hurting Trump Politically?
Apr 27 • 55 min
The crew analyzes recent data showing Trump losing ground in swing states. They also ask how much reactions to the pandemic have been based on partisanship.
Model Talk: Forecasting The Toll Of COVID-19
Apr 22 • 42 min
Dr. Chris Murray, creator of the frequently cited IHME COVID-19 model, joins a special edition of Model Talk.
What Is Motivating The COVID-19 Protests?
Apr 20 • 62 min
The crew discusses why protests against COVID-19 mitigation measures have popped up around the country. They also weigh the pros and cons of Biden’s potential VP picks.
How To Hold An Election During A Crisis
Apr 16 • 51 min
What has the United States done to ensure elections continue during past crises and what can the country do now to ensure this fall’s election goes smoothly?
Our 2020 Election Priors
Apr 13 • 52 min
Now that Democrats have settled on Joe Biden, the crew discusses their priors for the presidential general election. They also track where we are in the COVID-19 pandemic.
Emergency Podcast: Sanders Drops Out
Apr 8 • 30 min
The crew reacts to Sen. Bernie Sanders’s decision to suspend his campaign for president.
Wisconsin’s Election Is A Mess
Apr 6 • 53 min
The crew digs into the challenges facing Wisconsin’s election, given partisanship and the COVID-19 pandemic. They also take stock of where we are in the arc of the crisis.
Why It’s So Hard To Forecast The Impact Of COVID-19
Apr 2 • 33 min
FiveThirtyEight’s science writer Maggie Koerth and quantitative editor Laura Bronner join the podcast to discuss the challenges of modeling the impact of COVID-19.
Why Trump’s Approval Rating Has Increased
Mar 30 • 50 min
The crew discusses where we are in the arc of the COVID-19 crisis, how Americans are rating the president’s performance, and the significance of the DPA.
COVID-19 Broke The Jobless Claims Chart
Mar 26 • 34 min
Economics reporter Ben Casselman joins Galen Druke and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux to discuss the stunning unemployment claims numbers from last week.
How COVID-19 Is — And Isn’t — Changing Politics
Mar 23 • 51 min
The crew discusses how the COVID-19 pandemic is affecting the politics of Washington, D.C. and how it’s disrupting the 2020 presidential race.
How COVID-19 Is Changing The Economy
Mar 20 • 40 min
Economist Tara Sinclair joins Galen Druke and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux to discuss the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic so far.
How COVID-19 Affected Tuesday’s Vote
Mar 18 • 30 min
FiveThirtyEight’s Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux and Nathaniel Rakich discuss the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Tuesday night’s primary elections.
Coronavirus, Uncertainty, Politics
Mar 16 • 49 min
The crew discusses the coronavirus crisis and the uncertainty and politics surrounding it.
Biden And Sanders Debate Amid Pandemic
Mar 15 • 18 min
The crew reacts to the first Biden vs. Sanders one-on-one debate, which took place amid the coronavirus pandemic.
The Democratic Primary Is No Longer Competitive
Mar 11 • 31 min
The crew reacts to the latest round of Democratic primary results, in which Biden far outperformed Sanders.
Is Even Coronavirus Partisan?
Mar 9 • 45 min
The crew discusses the results of a poll on coronavirus and previews the upcoming primary races.
Model Talk: Biden Is A Clear Favorite
Mar 6 • 29 min
Emergency Podcast: Warren Drops Out
Mar 5 • 23 min
The crew reacts to the news that Sen. Elizabeth Warren is suspending her campaign for president.
Biden Won Super Tuesday. What Now?
Mar 4 • 32 min
The crew reacts to Joe Biden’s very strong performance on Super Tuesday and asks what comes next.
What’s At Stake On Super Tuesday
Mar 2 • 55 min
The crew previews the races that will be decided on Super Tuesday and debates the effect Buttigieg’s dropout will have.
Biden Wins Big In South Carolina
Feb 29 • 26 min
The crew reacts to Biden’s big win in South Carolina and discusses what comes next in what looks to be a two person race.
How Rep. James Clyburn Settled On Endorsing Biden
Feb 26 • 33 min
Rep. James Clyburn endorsed Joe Biden on Wednesday. Galen Druke sat down with Clyburn ahead of his endorsement to discuss Biden, South Carolina and the Democratic Party.
What Went Down In The South Carolina Debate
Feb 26 • 40 min
The crew reacts to a messy Democratic debate in South Carolina.
Sanders Wins Big In Nevada
Feb 23 • 36 min
Nate Silver and editor of the Nevada Independent, Jon Ralston, join the podcast from Las Vegas to discuss the results of the Nevada caucuses.
Bloomberg Stumbles In Chaotic Debate
Feb 20 • 36 min
In a late night edition of the podcast, the crew reacts to the Nevada Democratic primary debate.
Can Bloomberg Win?!
Feb 18 • 52 min
The crew discusses Michael Bloomberg’s chances of winning the nomination. They also debate whether Bernie Sanders has a lock on the Nevada caucuses.
Model Talk: The Chance Of Chaos Increases
Feb 14 • 26 min
Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss how the Democratic primary forecast has updated since the New Hampshire primary.
Bernie Sanders Wins New Hampshire
Feb 12 • 31 min
The crew reacts to the results of the New Hampshire primary, including a Sanders win, a close second for Buttigieg and a surprise third place finish for Klobuchar.
Live From Manchester: A New Hampshire Preview
Feb 10 • 69 min
At a live show in Manchester, the crew previews the New Hampshire primary, debates the likelihood of a contested convention and plays a game!
Live From The New Hampshire Debate
Feb 7 • 27 min
The crew reacts to the Democratic primary debate in New Hampshire, from the spin room.
The Results In Iowa
Feb 5 • 47 min
The crew discusses the results — so far — from the Iowa caucuses. They also check in on the race in New Hampshire and the vote to acquit President Trump.
Chaos In Iowa
Feb 4 • 24 min
The crew discusses the lack of results in the Democratic Iowa caucuses.
Model Talk: What To Expect From The Iowa Caucuses
Feb 2 • 38 min
Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the latest polling in the final day before the Iowa caucuses.
Stacey Abrams Thinks She’ll Be President By 2040
Jan 31 • 34 min
As part of our When Women Run series, Clare Malone sat down with Stacey Abrams, former candidate for governor of Georgia.
When Women Run
Jan 29 • 58 min
To better understand what it’s really like to run for office as a woman, we spoke to women from every state who have done it — 97 women in all. These are their stories.
The Sanders Surge
Jan 27 • 59 min
The crew assesses Bernie Sanders’s improvement in the polls a week before the Iowa caucuses. They also discuss reporting from John Bolton’s new book.
The Primaries Project: There’s Gotta Be A Better System…Right?
Jan 23 • 32 min
This is the third installment of our audio documentary series “The Primaries Project,” looking at how our primary system came to be and its effect on American politics.
How Senators Are Calculating Impeachment Politics
Jan 22 • 27 min
FiveThirtyEight’s Perry Bacon Jr. and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux join Galen Druke to discuss the political considerations at play in President Trump’s impeachment trial.
Live From DC: America’s Favorite Sandwich
Jan 20 • 73 min
In front of a live audience in DC, the crew debates the electoral cases of the leading Democratic candidates. The also discuss electability and guess what America thinks.
The Primaries Project: The Effects Of Reform
Jan 15 • 45 min
This is the second installment of our audio documentary series “The Primaries Project,” looking at how our primary system came to be and its effect on American politics.
The Last Pre-Iowa Debate
Jan 15 • 32 min
The crew reacts to the candidates’ performances in the last Democratic primary debate before the Iowa caucuses.
A Four-Way Pileup In Iowa
Jan 13 • 42 min
The crew discusses the latest polling in Iowa, showing a tight four-way race. They also talk about Booker’s decision to dropout and Tom Steyer’s polling in NV and SC.
Model Talk: The Primary Forecast Is Live
Jan 10 • 38 min
FiveThirtyEight’s 2020 Democratic primary forecast is live. In a new installment of “Model Talk” Nate Silver discusses what went into creating it.
The Primaries Project: How 1968 Changed Everything
Jan 9 • 33 min
This is the first installment of our audio documentary series “The Primaries Project,” looking at how our primary system came to be and its effect on American history.
How The Iran Conflict Could Affect 2020
Jan 6 • 47 min
The team discusses the political implication’s of President Trump’s decision to kill Iran’s Maj. Gen. Qassem Suleimani in a drone strike.
The Biggest Political Moments Of 2019
Dec 30, 2019 • 49 min
The podcast crew looks back at the biggest political moments of 2019 and looks ahead to the most pressing questions of 2020.
Eggnog And Listener Questions
Dec 23, 2019 • 47 min
In this holiday installment of the podcast, the crew drinks eggnog and answers questions from listeners.
The House Impeaches President Trump
Dec 18, 2019 • 29 min
President Donald Trump became the third president in American history to be impeached on Thursday. The podcast team discusses how we got here and what comes next.
Do Voters’ Second Choices Matter?
Dec 16, 2019 • 48 min
The crew previews what to expect from this week’s likely impeachment vote and debate how much voters’ second choices matter in the Democratic primary.
Conservatives Win Big In The UK Election
Dec 13, 2019 • 45 min
University of Cambridge political scientists Helen Thompson and David Runciman join the podcast to break down the results of the 2019 British general election.
The Primary According To The Early States
Dec 9, 2019 • 53 min
The crew shares a preview of FiveThirtyEight’s polling averages in the early states. They also discuss the path Trump’s presidency is on.
The Legal Experts And The Polls
Dec 4, 2019 • 42 min
We review the House testimony from legal scholars on whether Trump committed an impeachable offense and check out the results of our polling collaboration with Ipsos.
Emergency Podcast: Harris Drops Out
Dec 3, 2019 • 40 min
The crew reacts to Sen. Kamala Harris’s decision to drop out of the Democratic primary.
Is The Party Deciding?
Dec 2, 2019 • 54 min
The crew looks at which candidates are racking up endorsements and whether there’s a meaningful trend in favor of Biden. They also take stock of Harris’s troubles on the trail
A Very FiveThirtyEight Thanksgiving
Nov 25, 2019 • 59 min
The crew discusses public opinion on impeachment and plays a Thanksgiving-inspired game.
What Went Down In The 5th Democratic Debate
Nov 21, 2019 • 26 min
In a late night podcast, the crew reacts to the fifth Democratic primary debate.
Impeachment Hearings Day 4: Sondland Testifies
Nov 20, 2019 • 30 min
The crew reacts to U.S. Ambassador to the E.U. Gordon Sondland’s testimony in the fourth day of public impeachment hearings.
Impeachment Hearings Day 3: The Phone Call
Nov 19, 2019 • 24 min
The crew discusses what went down during the third day of public impeachment hearings.
The Buttigieg Bump 2.0
Nov 18, 2019 • 52 min
The crew discusses the latest polling out of Iowa, showing a shakeup in the race there. They also ask why education levels are such a key factor in how people vote.
Yovanovich Testifies, Trump Attacks
Nov 15, 2019 • 29 min
The crew reacts to the second day of public impeachment hearings.
Public Impeachment Hearings Begin
Nov 13, 2019 • 37 min
The crew reacts to the first of many public impeachment hearings on President Trump’s attempt to pressure Ukraine to investigate a political rival.
The FiveThirtyNATE Podcast
Nov 11, 2019 • 64 min
The New York Times’s Nate Cohn joins the podcast to discuss battleground state polling, the Electoral College and the state of the Democratic primary.
What The 2019 Election Results Mean
Nov 6, 2019 • 38 min
FiveThirtyEight election analysts Nathaniel Rakich and Geoffrey Skelley break down the results of the 2019 elections.
Free-For-All In Iowa
Nov 4, 2019 • 51 min
The crew previews the key elections on the ballot this Election Day and debates the role healthcare is playing in Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s plateauing in national polls.
Exit Interview: Tim Ryan
Oct 31, 2019 • 36 min
Rep. Tim Ryan exited the presidential race last week. We ask him to be candid about his experience in an “exit interview.”
What Should Republicans Do?
Oct 28, 2019 • 61 min
The crew debates the savviest political strategy for Senate Republicans on the issue of impeachment. They also discuss the death of al-Baghdadi and disagreement in the polls.
The Taylor Testimony
Oct 23, 2019 • 23 min
The crew discusses the significance of U.S. envoy to Ukraine William Taylor’s testimony. He claimed Trump made military aid contingent on politically-motivated investigations.
Medicare For Fall
Oct 21, 2019 • 52 min
The podcast crew discusses the politics of Medicare for All in the Democratic primary. They also look at the latest impeachment polling.
Warren In The Hot Seat
Oct 16, 2019 • 38 min
The crew reacts to the fourth Democratic primary debate.
What To Look For In The 4th Debate
Oct 14, 2019 • 57 min
The crew discusses the latest impeachment polling and previews the fourth Democratic primary debate.
Impeachment 101
Oct 10, 2019 • 42 min
Law professor Kate Shaw joins the podcast to discuss the laws and history behind impeachment and how they apply to today.
Is Ukraine Getting Worse For Trump?
Oct 7, 2019 • 59 min
The podcast crew reviews the latest news in the impeachment inquiry and discusses the two parties’ strategies. They also ask if Joe Biden is the Democratic frontrunner.
How TV’s Evolution Explains Our Politics
Oct 3, 2019 • 36 min
New York Times TV critic James Poniewozik joins the podcast to explain how changes in television over the past forty years have shaped American politics.
Impeachment Is Becoming More Popular
Sep 30, 2019 • 50 min
The crew looks at how public opinion on impeaching President Trump has changed in the week since Speaker Pelosi announced a formal inquiry.
The Whistleblower’s Complaint
Sep 26, 2019 • 36 min
It’s only been 48 hours since we last recorded, but a lot has happened. We discuss the release of Trump’s Ukraine call summary, the whistleblower’s complaint and more.
What An Impeachment Inquiry Might Mean
Sep 24, 2019 • 24 min
The crew gathers to discuss Nancy Pelosi’s decision to launch an impeachment inquiry against President Trump. How’d we get here, and what might come next?
Are Democrats Ready To Impeach Trump?
Sep 23, 2019 • 48 min
The crew discusses how the Ukraine story could change the impeachment conversation for Democrats. They also debate whether Elizabeth Warren is now the frontrunner in Iowa.
We Ran Into Andrew Yang At The Airport
Sep 19, 2019 • 26 min
Nate and Galen ran into Andrew Yang waiting for the same return flight from the debate in Houston last week. They asked if he’d record a podcast and he obliged.
The State Of *Both* 2020 Primaries
Sep 16, 2019 • 54 min
The crew discusses the latest post-debate polling and what the GOP primary is teaching us about Trump’s electoral strengths and weaknesses.
What Went Down In The Third Democratic Debate
Sep 13, 2019 • 35 min
The crew reacts to the third Democratic primary debate from the spin room floor in Houston, Texas.
How To Own The Debate
Sep 9, 2019 • 56 min
The crew discusses possible strategies for the candidates on stage in the Democratic primary debate on Thursday.
The Gerrymandering Fight Moves To The States
Sep 5, 2019 • 26 min
A North Carolina court panel threw out the state’s legislative maps as a partisan gerrymander this week. Nancy Martorano Miller and Dave Wasserman discuss the implications.
And Then There Were Ten
Sep 3, 2019 • 44 min
The crew discusses the dynamic of the third Democratic primary debate, in which ten candidates will face off on a single night. They also ask: good use or bad use of polling?
A Constitutional Crisis In Britain?
Aug 29, 2019 • 45 min
Helen Thompson and David Runciman join the podcast to discuss Boris Johnson’s suspension of parliament and the politics of Brexit.
The Winnowing Begins
Aug 26, 2019 • 48 min
The crew takes a look at who has dropped out of the Democratic primary and why. They also assess the political risk of a hypothetical downturn in the economy.
The 2019 Elections
Aug 22, 2019 • 30 min
FiveThirtyEight elections analysts Nathaniel Rakich and Geoffrey Skelley join the podcast to discuss the races on the ballot in 2019 and the current national environment.
Elizabeth Warren’s Comeback
Aug 19, 2019 • 55 min
The crew discusses how Elizabeth Warren gained ground after polling fifth or sixth nationally a handful of months ago. They also ask what’s changed since the El Paso shooting.
Trump’s Trade War Puts His Biggest Asset At Risk
Aug 15, 2019 • 37 min
International economist Mary Lovely joins the podcast to discuss the effects of President Trump’s trade war with China.
How Much Does Iowa Matter?
Aug 12, 2019 • 58 min
Following a weekend during which the 2020 candidates flooded Iowa, the crew debates the significance of the first-in-the-nation caucus state.
“The Best Pollster In Politics”
Aug 8, 2019 • 34 min
Ann Selzer, who conducts the “Iowa Poll” and has an A+ rating in FiveThirtyEight’s pollster rankings, talks about the challenges of polling Iowa in 2020.
Can Trump’s Words Incite Violence?
Aug 5, 2019 • 53 min
The podcast team discusses the weekend’s mass shootings and the relationship between political rhetoric and violence.
Live From Detroit: The State Of The Race Post-Debates
Aug 2, 2019 • 71 min
The crew discusses the debates and the state of the 2020 Democratic primary race in downtown Detroit.
Democrats Battle It Out
Jul 31, 2019 • 34 min
The left and moderate flanks of the Democratic Party debated big ideas in the second primary debate. Nate and Galen react from downtown Detroit.
Are Democrats Moving Too Far Left?
Jul 29, 2019 • 54 min
The crew debates the risks for 2020 Democrats of taking unpopular positions on issues like healthcare and immigration. The also discuss Democrats’ next steps on impeachment.
Mueller Talks
Jul 24, 2019 • 36 min
After months of back-and-forth with Democrats, former special counsel Robert Mueller testified before the U.S. House Judiciary and Intelligence committees on Wednesday.
Racial Resentment As A Political Strategy
Jul 22, 2019 • 58 min
The podcast crew discusses the role that racial resentment played in the 2016 and 2018 elections and debates whether Trump could use it to his advantage in 2020.
Who’s Going To Win Pennsylvania In 2020?
Jul 18, 2019 • 38 min
The podcast heads to Pennsylvania to discuss the state’s political trends and what they mean for 2020.
Trump’s Racist Tweets
Jul 15, 2019 • 54 min
The podcast team discusses Trump’s tweets appearing to target a group of congresswomen of color. They also debate the odds of a Democrat winning a Senate seat in Kentucky.
Exit Interview: Eric Swalwell
Jul 11, 2019 • 35 min
Rep. Eric Swalwell exited the presidential race this week. We ask him to be candid about his experience in an “exit interview.”
Is Biden Still The Front-Runner?
Jul 8, 2019 • 47 min
The podcast crew debates whether Joe Biden is still the front-runner in the Democratic primary race. They also discuss Rep. Justin Amash’s decision to leave the GOP.
The Verdict On The Debates
Jul 1, 2019 • 62 min
The podcast crew digs into data about how voters reacted to the first debates. They also discuss the new sexual assault accusation against President Trump.
Harris Wins Narrative. We’ll See About The Voters.
Jun 28, 2019 • 37 min
The crew reacts to night two of the first Democratic primary debates.
What Went Down At The First Democratic Debate
Jun 27, 2019 • 35 min
The podcast team reacts to night one of the first Democratic primary debates.
Lanes Emerge In The Democratic Primary
Jun 24, 2019 • 51 min
The crew re-assesses the significance of “lanes” in the Democratic primary and looks at Trump’s Iran strategy.
What’s At Stake In The Final Week Of SCOTUS Decisions
Jun 21, 2019 • 38 min
Legal reporter Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux joins the podcast to discuss key decisions the Supreme Court has made so far, and what is at stake in the final 12 cases.
Who Is Persuadable In 2020?
Jun 17, 2019 • 53 min
As Trump kicks off his reelection campaign, the crew debates who is persuadable in 2020. They also discuss the Democratic primary debate lineups.
A Republican Strategist’s Guide To 2020
Jun 13, 2019 • 44 min
Republican strategist and pollster Bill McInturff joins the podcast to discuss his report, “What Republicans Need to Know as We Move Toward the 2020 Election.”
Is Elizabeth Warren Surging?
Jun 10, 2019 • 51 min
The crew examines whether the popular narrative of Elizabeth Warren’s breakthrough is reflected in the data. They also discuss why Joe Biden backtracked on the Hyde Amendment.
The D.C. Statehood Episode
Jun 6, 2019 • 39 min
Representative Eleanor Holmes Norton and Majority Leader Steny Hoyer join the podcast to discuss Democrats’ efforts to make D.C. the nation’s 51st state.
Are Voters Sexist?
Jun 3, 2019 • 53 min
The crew discusses what we know about how voters respond to female candidates and how the women running for president in 2020 are navigating questions about their identity.
Are Nationalist Victories Around The World Connected?
May 31, 2019 • 33 min
University of Cambridge professors Helen Thompson and David Runciman join the podcast to discuss what appear to be a string of similar outcomes in elections around the world.
Is Pelosi’s Trump Strategy Working?
May 28, 2019 • 40 min
The crew discusses whether last week’s back-and-forth between Pelosi and Trump achieved its reported goal. They also look at head-to-head polling in the Democratic primary.
What We Can Learn From Tracking Trump’s Falsehoods
May 23, 2019 • 30 min
The Washington Post has been tracking every false or misleading claim Trump has made while in office. In this episode, we dig into the database.
Have Americans Changed Their Minds On Abortion?
May 20, 2019 • 59 min
The politics team examines Bill de Blasio’s theory of the case, the rationale behind seemingly conflicting numbers on abortion and ask if Democrats can win the Senate in 2020.
Why Some States Are Passing New Abortion Restrictions
May 16, 2019 • 27 min
Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey signed the most restrictive abortion law in recent U.S. history into law on Wednesday. It’s part of a larger trend of changing state level abortion law.
The Politics Of Impeaching Trump
May 13, 2019 • 45 min
The crew debates the possible political repercussions for Democrats of moving to impeach Trump. They also look at how some on the left have tried to discredit a CNN poll.
Live From Houston: What Happened To The Bush GOP?
May 9, 2019 • 73 min
In a live taping from Houston, Texas, the crew discusses how and why the GOP has changed from the party of Bush to the party of Trump. They also play a 2020 primary draft.
Live From Austin: Will Texas Be A Battleground In 2020?
May 6, 2019 • 55 min
The crew is in Austin, Texas, where they debate whether the Lone Star State will be a battleground in 2020. They also play a heated round of trivia.
Mueller’s Letter To Barr
May 1, 2019 • 28 min
Special Counsel Mueller wrote AG Barr a letter expressing concerns about how he’d characterized the report’s findings to Congress. The podcast crew reacts.
Peto Buttichar 2020
Apr 29, 2019 • 48 min
The crew discusses the Democratic Party’s reaction to Joe Biden entering the presidential race. They also ask why Sanders and Warren don’t have more crossover support.
How Joe Biden Could Win
Apr 25, 2019 • 33 min
Former Vice President Joe Biden announced his candidacy for president on Thursday. The crew discusses the reasons he could win the nomination or come up short.
We Have The Mueller Report. Now What?
Apr 22, 2019 • 50 min
The crew discusses how the various players are positioning themselves now that the Mueller report is public. Plus, the Democratic primary field expanded again.
Emergency Podcast: The Mueller Report
Apr 18, 2019 • 44 min
The podcast team reacts to the release of the redacted Mueller report.
The State Of The Democratic Primary
Apr 15, 2019 • 47 min
As the first quarter of 2019 comes to a close, the crew gives an assessment of state of the 2020 Democratic primary.
How Good Are FiveThirtyEight Forecasts?
Apr 11, 2019 • 30 min
Our “Model Talk” series returns briefly to discuss the performance of FiveThirtyEight’s forecast models over the past decade. We crunched the numbers and the results are in!
Do Democrats Want An Outsider In 2020?
Apr 8, 2019 • 54 min
The crew debates the appeal of a political outsider for Democrats in 2020. They also look at the class divide among white voters how that affects their political behavior.
The Electoral College Episode
Apr 4, 2019 • 41 min
Julia Azari and Seth Masket join the podcast to discuss the arguments for and against the Electoral College and how likely it is to actually change.
What Will Biden Do?
Apr 1, 2019 • 43 min
Joe Biden has been accused of inappropriately touching a former legislator at a campaign event. Will that change his calculus about whether to get in the race?
Can Statistics Solve Gerrymandering?
Mar 28, 2019 • 57 min
Mathematician Moon Duchin joins Nate Silver and Galen Druke to discuss a method for spotting partisan gerrymandering that the Supreme Court considered Tuesday.
Life After The Mueller Report
Mar 25, 2019 • 50 min
The crew reacts to the principal findings of the Mueller report, according to Attorney General Bill Barr.
Emergency Podcast: Mueller Has Filed His Report
Mar 22, 2019 • 12 min
In this emergency podcast, Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux joins Galen Druke to discuss what comes next now that Special Counsel Mueller has filed his report.
Live From NY: It’s A 2020 Draft!
Mar 21, 2019 • 64 min
In a live taping of the podcast, the crew competes in a draft of the 2020 primary candidates. They also play “Good Use of Polling or Bad Use of Polling?”
Ranking 2020 Rollouts
Mar 18, 2019 • 42 min
The crew takes stock of which candidates have done the best job introducing themselves in the early months of the primary.
The Moment Of Truth For Brexit
Mar 15, 2019 • 37 min
David Runciman and Helen Thompson from the British “Talking Politics” podcast discuss the week in Brexit and what comes next.
How Beto O’Rourke Could Win
Mar 14, 2019 • 34 min
Former El Paso congressman Beto O’Rourke is running for president. The crew discusses how he could win — or lose — the Democratic primary.
How Divided Are Democrats?
Mar 11, 2019 • 51 min
The podcast crew analyzes the divisions within the Democratic Party and makes sense of why potential 2020 candidates like Sherrod Brown decided not to run.
Iowa And New Hampshire Can Go To Hell
Mar 7, 2019 • 30 min
Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada. Why do those four states vote first and does the lineup make sense?