FiveThirtyEight Politics

FiveThirtyEight Politics
Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team cover the latest in politics, tracking the issues and “game-changers” every week.
Emergency Podcast: The Suborn Identity
Jan 18 • 29 min
In this emergency installment, the crew reacts to a Buzzfeed News report that President Trump directed his lawyer, Michael Cohen, to lie to Congress.
How Kirsten Gillibrand Could Win
Jan 16 • 37 min
New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand is the latest in the Democratic field to make official moves toward running for president. The crew discusses her case for the nomination. Note: At 17:40, Nate Silver’s audio may be a bit unclear. He says, “It’s not…
How Julian Castro Could Win
Jan 14 • 46 min
The crew discusses what Julian Castro’s path to the Democratic nomination could look like. They also lay out a rubric for evaluating candidate strengths and talk shutdown.
Will Trump Face A Primary Challenge?
Jan 10 • 29 min
Is Trump in danger of a serious challenge for the Republican nomination in 2020? Perry Bacon Jr. and Julia Azari join the podcast to discuss.
How Elizabeth Warren Could Win
Jan 7 • 54 min
The crew discusses the paths to Elizabeth Warren winning — and losing — the 2020 Democratic nomination. They also look at the political repercussions of the shutdown.
The Gerrymandering Project: Arizona
Dec 31, 2018 • 38 min
In 2018, more states decided to put independent commissions in charge of redistricting. Arizona serves as an example of some of the challenges those commissions can face.
Our 2018 Politics Awards
Dec 24, 2018 • 56 min
The crew looks back on the year in politics and gives out made up awards. They also share resolutions for 2019.
Emergency Podcast: Mattis Is Out, Shutdown Is On (?)
Dec 21, 2018 • 28 min
In an emergency episode of the podcast, the crew discusses Defense Secretary Jim Mattis’s departure and the looming government shutdown.
Should Democrats Play Dirty?
Dec 17, 2018 • 50 min
Democrats backed off a plan that would gerrymander New Jersey, while Republicans went ahead with a power grab in Wisconsin. The crew discusses why the parties play differently
The Brexit Episode
Dec 13, 2018 • 28 min
Two political science professors from the University of Cambridge join the podcast to explain what happened in Britain this week and what comes next.
Trump’s Turbulent Week
Dec 10, 2018 • 42 min
President Trump is continuing to face possible legal trouble over campaign finance violations, meanwhile the White House is in the middle of another staffing shakeup.
Something Is Fishy In North Carolina
Dec 3, 2018 • 54 min
The crew reflects on how politics have changed since President H. W. Bush’s time in office. They also speak with Prof. Michael Bitzer about possible election fraud in NC-09.
Emergency Podcast: Cohen Is Cooperating With Mueller
Nov 29, 2018 • 21 min
In an emergency installment, the crew reacts to news that Michael Cohen pleaded guilty for lying to Congress about the details of a potential Trump project in Moscow.
This Is Mueller Talk!
Nov 29, 2018 • 30 min
After months of silence, the Mueller investigation is making news again. Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux joins the podcast to make sense of a big week of revelations.
Can A Democrat Win In Mississippi?
Nov 26, 2018 • 52 min
The final Senate election of 2018 is scheduled for Tuesday in Mississippi. The crew discusses the fault lines at play of race, geography and class.
Will Pelosi Be Replaced?
Nov 19, 2018 • 54 min
The Democrats have a majority in the House, now they need a Speaker. The crew discusses whether Nancy Pelosi will be re-elected and what the vote says about the party.
How Our Model Did
Nov 15, 2018 • 42 min
In this post-mortem episode of “Model Talk,” Nate discusses how our forecasts did and how we can improve them going forward.
A Post-Midterms 2020 Draft… Live!
Nov 12, 2018 • 52 min
Live from New York, the team ranks the politicians most likely to win the 2020 Democratic primary. They also debrief on the latest results from the midterms.
Midterms Review
Nov 8, 2018 • 34 min
The team looks at some the underlying data from the 2018 midterms to understand the trends at play.
Emergency Podcast: Sessions Is Out
Nov 7, 2018 • 26 min
President Trump has fired Attorney General Jeff Sessions and is replacing him with someone who may curtain the Mueller investigation. The crew reacts.
Election Night Wrap-Up: Write Your Own Narrative
Nov 7, 2018 • 30 min
Clare Malone, Micah Cohen, and Jody Avirgan gather in the podcast studio at the end of a long election night to talk about what we learned and what’s next.
A Guide To Election Night
Nov 6, 2018 • 21 min
We walk you through the key races to watch, hour by hour, as the polls close on election night.
The Final Countdown
Nov 5, 2018 • 51 min
The crew reviews the forecasts and other indicators for a final time before Election Day. They also ask whether Trump’s appeals on immigration will help Republicans.
How To Judge The Model’s Performance
Nov 2, 2018 • 36 min
In this installment of “Model Talk,” Nate Silver explains how to judge the model’s performance, given that we expect the less likely scenario to happen sometimes.
Debating Our Own House Forecast
Nov 1, 2018 • 22 min
We throw caution to the wind and debate whether to “buy, sell, or hold” the odds in our House forecast.
Debating Our Own Senate Forecast
Oct 31, 2018 • 31 min
We throw caution to the wind and debate whether to “buy, sell, or hold” the odds in our Senate forecast.
The Most Important Races You Aren’t Watching
Oct 30, 2018 • 36 min
There are over 6,000 state legislative races on the ballot this fall and they’ll play a big role in Americans’ lives. Over a hundred ballot measures are also up for a vote.
Do Toxic Politics Lead To Violence?
Oct 29, 2018 • 46 min
The crew reacts to the spate of violence over the past week and asks whether toxic politics are to blame.
The Early Vote Is Not In The Model
Oct 26, 2018 • 32 min
In this installment of Model Talk, Nate Silver explains why he doesn’t use the early vote to help forecast election results. He also answers questions from listeners.
The Campaign Ads Dominating 2018
Oct 25, 2018 • 37 min
The parties are spending billions on advertising this cycle. The team looks at which topics are mentioned the most in order to understand the parties’ priorities.
How Voting Laws Will Affect The Midterms
Oct 23, 2018 • 37 min
New voting laws in Georgia and North Dakota are under the spotlight in the run up to Election Day. We discuss how those and other voting laws can affect elections.
These Fundraising Numbers Are Unprecedented
Oct 22, 2018 • 49 min
House Democrats have about a two to one advantage over Republicans in individual contributions. The crew debates how to make sense of that historic advantage.
The Governors Forecast Is Live
Oct 17, 2018 • 37 min
In this installment of Model Talk, Nate Silver discusses key races in the newly released governors forecast and answers listener questions.
Early Indicators Of Who Is Running In 2020
Oct 15, 2018 • 54 min
The team considers whether Democrats can perform well in the Midterms based on their advantages among women alone. The also look at early indicators of who is running in 2020.
The Forecasts Are Diverging
Oct 11, 2018 • 27 min
In this installment of Model Talk, Nate Silver explains the hypotheses for why the House and Senate forecasts are diverging and answers questions from listeners.
Live: Are Any Of The Post-Kavanaugh Narratives Right?
Oct 8, 2018 • 58 min
At a live show in DC, the crew debates the political consequences of the Kavanaugh episode. They also weigh the importance of tipping point Senate races and play a game.
Collins Says Yes On Kavanaugh
Oct 5, 2018 • 27 min
The crew discusses how Brett Kavanaugh’s all-but-certain confirmation to the Supreme Court might affect the midterms.
The Ultimate Romney-Clinton District
Oct 2, 2018 • 32 min
Galen Druke heads to a traditionally Republican district in Houston, Texas that swung 23 points towards Hillary Clinton in 2016. The district is rated as a toss-up in 2018.
We Have New Polling On Kavanaugh
Oct 1, 2018 • 51 min
The first batch of polls is out since Judge Brett Kavanaugh’s testimony last Thursday. The crew discusses how the public is reacting.
Flake News!
Sep 28, 2018 • 16 min
The podcast crew reacts to Senator Jeff Flake’s call for an FBI investigation into allegations against Brett Kavanaugh.
The Ford/Kavanaugh Testimony
Sep 27, 2018 • 36 min
The podcast team reacts to the Judiciary Committee testimony of Professor Christine Blasey Ford and Judge Brett Kavanaugh.
Fire Rosenstein? Withdraw Kavanaugh? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Sep 24, 2018 • 60 min
In a special live taping of the podcast, the crew discusses the future of Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein and Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh.
The Model Is 7,000 Lines Of Code
Sep 20, 2018 • 29 min
In this installment of Model Talk Nate discusses how unexpected events affect the model and answers listener questions about how long the model is and where it’s stored.
Kavanaugh’s Confirmation Is In Trouble
Sep 17, 2018 • 48 min
The crew discusses the political response to an accusation from a woman who says Brett Kavanaugh sexually assaulted her in high school.
Emergency Podcast: Manafort Is Cooperating
Sep 14, 2018 • 33 min
President Trump’s former campaign chairman, Paul Manafort, is cooperating with the Mueller investigation. The crew reacts to the news.
The Senate Forecast Is Live
Sep 12, 2018 • 30 min
In the latest installment of Model Talk, Nate discusses why the FiveThirtyEight Senate forecast favors Republicans.
Stop Catering To Idiots
Sep 10, 2018 • 47 min
The crew reacts to the latest news about the inner workings of the Trump administration and explores the Upshot’s foray into live polling.
How Useful Are SCOTUS Confirmation Hearings?
Sep 6, 2018 • 28 min
After three days of Supreme Court nomination hearings, Perry Bacon Jr. and Oliver Roeder discuss what, if anything, they learned.
Is The Path Of Trump’s Presidency Set?
Sep 3, 2018 • 51 min
The crew is using the Labor Day holiday to take a step back from the news of the moment and assess how President Trump is faring after more than a year and a half in office.
Debugging The Model
Aug 30, 2018 • 29 min
In this episode of Model Talk, Nate talks about debugging the model and answers questions from listeners, including one surprise listener by the name of Rush.
Impeachment: A FiveThirtyEight Debate
Aug 27, 2018 • 58 min
The crew discusses the legacy of Senator John McCain. They also debate how Democrats should approach the question of impeachment.
What Does It Mean To Be ‘Electable’?
Aug 23, 2018 • 34 min
Perry Bacon Jr. and Julia Azari discuss what “electability” means and consider whether it’s a useful term for assessing candidates.
Emergency Podcast: Cohen + Manafort = !!!
Aug 21, 2018 • 19 min
The podcast crew reacts to a guilty plea from Michael Cohen and a guilty verdict for Paul Manafort on the same day.
Democrats Are Competing Everywhere
Aug 20, 2018 • 45 min
The crew discusses their takeaways from the new 2018 House forecast. They also sort through new data on how Trump voters’ views have evolved or not since 2016.
The Upset Of The Season
Jun 28, 2018 • 23 min
In the heat of the news of Justice Kennedy’s retirement, this podcast might have been lost forever. The team reacts to a major primary upset in New York’s 14th district.
Emergency Podcast: Kennedy Is Retiring
Jun 27, 2018 • 25 min
The podcast team reacts to the news that Justice Anthony Kennedy is retiring from the U.S. Supreme Court.
Is Immigration The Issue of 2018?
Jun 25, 2018 • 52 min
The team discusses the continuing fallout from Trump’s policy of separating families that illegally cross the border. They also ask why there aren’t more GOP women in Congress
Bonus Episode: Masculinity In 2018
Jun 21, 2018 • 42 min
FiveThirtyEight partnered with WNYC’s Death, Sex & Money podcast to do a survey asking what men think about being a man in 2018.
The Immigration Flashpoint
Jun 18, 2018 • 53 min
The team discusses the separation of children and parents at the border and the role that immigration plays in the GOP. They also react to a SCOTUS decision on gerrymandering.
Emergency Podcast: The Inspector General’s Report
Jun 14, 2018 • 20 min
Nate Silver and Perry Bacon Jr. discuss the political implications of the inspector general’s report on the 2016 FBI investigation of Hillary Clinton.
The Super Tuesday Of The Midterms
Jun 4, 2018 • 42 min
Eight states are holding primary contests on Tuesday, including California, where the top two primary system could create some interesting results.
The Polls Are All Right
May 31, 2018 • 29 min
FiveThirtyEight has updated its pollster ratings for the first time since before the 2016 election. Nate and Galen discuss the state of polling and what to expect in 2018.
Things Look Less Good For Dems
May 29, 2018 • 47 min
Democrats’ advantage in generic ballot polling has declined in recent months. The crew debates what that tells us about their prospects this fall.
A Year Of Mueller
May 21, 2018 • 49 min
The team takes stock of where the Mueller probe stands one year on. They also discuss Democrats’ debate over reducing the role of superdelegates in presidential primaries.
A Democratic Squabble In Texas
May 17, 2018 • 28 min
Does the fault line in the Democratic Party really run through Texas’s 7th district? Clare and Galen compare the candidates in what’s become a contentious Democratic primary.
Partisanship Is A Hell Of A Drug
May 14, 2018 • 54 min
The team discusses partisanship in the first of a series of conversations about the midterms called “Priors.” They also look at Americans’ views of Trump’s foreign policy.
Special Episode: Chasing Hillary
May 10, 2018 • 34 min
Nate Silver and Clare Malone sit down Amy Chozick, the author of “Chasing Hillary: Ten Years, Two Presidential Campaigns, and One Intact Glass Ceiling.”
Primary Season Begins
May 7, 2018 • 55 min
Tuesday is the fist big primary Election Day of the 2018 midterms. The team discusses the most important races to watch. They also debate whether Trump deserves more credit.
The Giuliani Rampage Podcast
May 4, 2018 • 36 min
President Trump’s new lawyer Rudy Giuliani contradicted the president about payments to Stormy Daniels during a two-day long media rampage.
How Much Trouble Is Manchin In?
Apr 30, 2018 • 50 min
Joe Manchin is one of ten Democrats defending a Senate seat in a state Trump won. The team looks at the Republicans vying to challenge him in West Virginia.
About That Texas Poll
Apr 23, 2018 • 47 min
The team debates whether the Texas Senate race is actually winnable for the Democrat. They also discuss the special election in Arizona and how to responsibly cover polls.
The Comey Episode
Apr 16, 2018 • 48 min
The crew debates the significance of former FBI Director James Comey’s new tell-all book. They also look at public opinion of the recent U.S. airstrikes in Syria.
Emergency Podcast: Ryan To Retire
Apr 11, 2018 • 23 min
House Speaker Paul Ryan announced Wednesday morning that he will not seek reelection in 2018. Perry Bacon Jr. and Julia Azari react to the news.
The Nightmare Midterms Hack
Apr 10, 2018 • 51 min
The team describes what a nightmare elections hack scenario would look like, based on reporting by Clare Malone. They also discuss the continuous scandals at the EPA.
Emergency Podcast: FBI Raids Trump’s Lawyer’s Office
Apr 9, 2018 • 18 min
The podcast crew responds to the news that the FBI raided the office and home of President Trump’s personal lawyer Michael Cohen.
FiveThirtyEight Family Feud
Apr 3, 2018 • 55 min
The team plays a round of “FiveThirtyEight Family Feud” to help determine Trump’s strengths and weakness. They also debate the merits of census’s new citizenship question.
Special: Cambridge Analytica, Facebook, and Political Data
Mar 29, 2018 • 31 min
Clare Malone and Jody Avirgan speak with Daniel Kreiss of UNC about the use of FB data in the 2016 election — and beyond. Listen to the history of data and politics series here:
How Do We Cover Stormy Daniels?
Mar 26, 2018 • 54 min
The team debates how to cover the alleged coverup and affair between Stormy Daniels and President Trump. They also dive into new data showing Americans are as divided as ever.
What If Trump Fired Mueller?
Mar 19, 2018 • 53 min
President Trump tore into the investigation by special counsel Robert Mueller this weekend. The team discusses what would happen if Trump fired Mueller.
The GOP Should Be Freaking Out, PA Edition
Mar 14, 2018 • 31 min
Democrat Conor Lamb looks poised to win in a Pennsylvania district that voted for Trump by 20 points. The podcast team discusses what the results mean for the midterms.
Emergency Podcast: Rexit
Mar 13, 2018 • 25 min
President Trump announced Secretary of State Rex Tillerson’s firing on twitter Tuesday morning. The podcast team reacts.
The Most Special Special Election Yet
Mar 12, 2018 • 48 min
The crew discusses the candidates and environment heading into Tuesday’s special election in Pennsylvania’s 18th district - a district that Trump won by 20 points.
Does Trump’s Mood Matter?
Mar 5, 2018 • 55 min
The team makes sense of a week of chaos at the White House and what it says about Trump’s decision making. They also discuss how academics rank presidential achievement.
A Turning Point On Guns?
Feb 26, 2018 • 51 min
The team discusses whether the high school shooting in Parkland, FL is a turning point in the gun debate. They also play a round of political “would you rather?”
The Gun Debate
Feb 20, 2018 • 50 min
This episode is dedicated entirely to discussing the gun debate. The crew looks at public opinion, political strategy and what is likely to happen next.
Emergency Podcast: 13 Russians Indicted
Feb 16, 2018 • 25 min
The team responds to news that 13 Russians and 3 companies have been indicted in the special counsel investigation into Russian meddling in the 2016 election.
What’s So Wrong With Nancy Pelosi?
Feb 12, 2018 • 59 min
The crew debates why Nancy Pelosi is such a target for Republican attacks and whether those attacks will actually move voters.
Has Trump Remade The GOP?
Feb 5, 2018 • 44 min
The team debates whether the Nunes memo was much ado about nothing, and discusses Trump’s effect on the Republican Party.
Which Version Of Trump’s Presidency Is Happening?
Jan 29, 2018 • 45 min
One year in, the day before Trump’s first (proper) State Of The Union address, we revisit the “14 Paths” and discuss what version of President Trump we ended up with.
The Three-Day Shutdown
Jan 22, 2018 • 52 min
The Senate voted to end the shutdown less than three days after it began. Did Democrats get what they wanted? The team also discusses the uptick in Trump’s approval rating.
Emergency Podcast - Government Shutdown
Jan 19, 2018 • 15 min
The politics team discusses the repercussions of the government shutdown after the Senate failed to pass a stopgap spending bill Friday night.
Immigration Showdown
Jan 16, 2018 • 54 min
With a government shutdown looming, Democrats and Republicans have hit an impasse over immigration policy. The crew discusses what’s at stake.
The Gerrymandering Project: Conclusion
Jan 11, 2018 • 46 min
In the final episode of our gerrymandering series we consider some more radical electoral reforms and look back on the lessons we’ve learned.
Oprah, Palace Intrigue And Nuclear War
Jan 8, 2018 • 62 min
The crew discusses the possibility of an Oprah presidential run, a new book about the Trump White House and Trump’s behavior towards North Korea.
The Gerrymandering Project: California
Jan 4, 2018 • 40 min
California took significant steps to try to rid redistricting of partisan politics. Politicians still sought to influence the process. Did they succeed?
Our Political Journalism Resolutions
Jan 1, 2018 • 39 min
2018 is here! We discuss our political reporting resolutions — both for ourselves and the media in general — as we head into a big new year.
Who’s Running In 2020?
Dec 25, 2017 • 42 min
The crew throws caution to the wind and debates which Democrats are best positioned to do well in the 2020 presidential primary.
The Gerrymandering Project: Arizona
Dec 21, 2017 • 39 min
The number of competitive congressional elections has fallen dramatically in recent decades. Arizona tried to combat that trend.
Lessons From Alabama
Dec 18, 2017 • 44 min
The politics team sorts through the hot takes from last week’s Senate election in Alabama. They also discuss the political implications of the proposed GOP tax overhaul.
The Gerrymandering Project: North Carolina
Dec 14, 2017 • 43 min
A decades long debate has raged over how to ensure minorities have a voice in America. In the third installment of our series, we look at racial gerrymandering.
Emergency Podcast: Doug Jones Wins
Dec 12, 2017 • 30 min
Doug Jones became the first Democrat to win a Senate race in Alabama in a quarter century. The team discusses the factors that converged to make that possible.
The Alabama Election Is Here
Dec 11, 2017 • 52 min
The Alabama special Senate election is Tuesday. The polls have varied significantly in an election where turnout is hard to predict. The team weighs in on what to expect.
The Gerrymandering Project: Wisconsin
Dec 7, 2017 • 38 min
Is partisan gerrymandering illegal? In the second installment of our gerrymandering series we look at a Supreme Court case that could reshape how we draw political boundaries.
Are Taxes A Pyrrhic Victory?
Dec 4, 2017 • 53 min
The Senate passed a tax overhaul bill Friday night. The team weighs the political and policy implications and follow up on the fallout from Michael Flynn’s guilty plea.
Emergency Podcast: Flynn Flips
Dec 1, 2017 • 15 min
A quick conversation in reaction the big news that Michael Flynn pleaded guilty to lying to the FBI about conversations with Russian officials.
The Gerrymandering Project: Intro
Nov 30, 2017 • 30 min
What is gerrymandering? This is the first episode in a six-part series exploring the effects of gerrymandering and how reformers hope to change the system.
Congress’s Broken Culture
Nov 27, 2017 • 44 min
Lawmakers return to Washington under pressure to confront sexual harassment by their own ranks. The podcast team also looks at the latest in the Alabama special Senate race.
Alabama Is Tied
Nov 20, 2017 • 47 min
The Alabama special Senate race is now tied, after numerous accusation that Republican Roy Moore molested and assaulted teenage girls. The podcast team reacts.
Franken Is Accused Of Harassment
Nov 16, 2017 • 22 min
Leeann Tweeden accused Senator Al Franken of kissing and groping her without her consent while on a USO tour in the Middle East. The podcast team reacts.
Alabama’s Senate Race
Nov 13, 2017 • 42 min
Five women have accused Roy Moore, Republican candidate for Senate from Alabama, of sexual misconduct. The team assesses how this will affect the final month of the campaign.
2016 Anniversary Talk
Nov 8, 2017 • 49 min
A year after the 2016 election, Nate & Micah sit down to discuss what it was like to cover the race - from the mistakes FiveThirtyEight made to the emotions of the final weeks
A Good Night For Democrats
Nov 7, 2017 • 19 min
The podcast team responds to strong showing by Democrats across the board on Election Day 2017
Election Day 2017
Nov 6, 2017 • 51 min
Will Democrats begin their comeback on Election Day 2017? The podcast team shares advice on which races to watch and what the margins mean.
Sexual Harassment In Media And Politics
Nov 4, 2017 • 32 min
Major figures in political journalism are alleged to have been serial sexual harassers. What does it mean to have those men in charge of the way political news gets made?
Mueller’s First Strike
Oct 30, 2017 • 44 min
Ex-chairman of the Trump campaign Paul Manafort was indicted along with two other campaign aides as part of Bob Mueller’s special investigation. The team weighs in.
Emergency Podcast - Flake Is Out
Oct 24, 2017 • 31 min
GOP Sen. Jeff Flake from Arizona, a repeated Trump critic, announced he will not seek reelection in 2018. The podcast team discusses what that means for Arizona and the GOP.
Could Alabama Go Blue?
Oct 23, 2017 • 48 min
The 2017 elections are not far off. The team looks at the candidates and polling in the Virginia governor’s race and Alabama’s special Senate race.
Steve Bannon’s War
Oct 16, 2017 • 47 min
Steve Bannon declared “war” on the GOP establishment at the Values Voter Summit last week. The podcast team discusses what that will mean for the 2018 midterms.
Corker Uncorked
Oct 9, 2017 • 51 min
GOP Senator Corker and President Trump went at each other over the weekend. The podcast weighs in on how Corker’s criticism of Trump could affect GOP politics.
Trump’s Response To Maria
Oct 2, 2017 • 49 min
The Trump administration is facing multiple crises: a mass shooting in Las Vegas, Puerto Rico recovering from hurricane Maria and rising tensions with North Korea.
Is Partisan Gerrymandering Illegal?
Sep 28, 2017 • 34 min
The Supreme Court is hearing a partisan gerrymandering case that could reshape how our democracy works. FiveThirtyEight brings you a deep dive into what is at stake.
Trump vs. The NFL
Sep 25, 2017 • 56 min
Over the weekend, President Trump targeted the NFL for player protests and was rebuked by owners, players and the players union. The podcast team weighs in.
Emergency Podcast: McCain Is A No
Sep 22, 2017 • 14 min
Sen. McCain is a no on the latest ACA repeal effort. The team debates what comes next.
Democrats Divided
Sep 18, 2017 • 54 min
As the Democratic Party increasingly embraces single payer healthcare and Clinton weighs in on her primary race against Sanders, the team discusses where the party is headed.
What Happened
Sep 11, 2017 • 56 min
Hillary Clinton is releasing a book this week chronicling what went wrong during her 2016 campaign from her perspective. The podcast team sizes up her assessment.
Immigration Politics
Sep 5, 2017 • 46 min
The White House has decided to end the DACA program. The podcast team weighs in on how voters view DACA and what Congress’s options are for replacing it.
Harvey Tests Trump
Aug 28, 2017 • 57 min
Amid historic flooding in East Texas, the team talks about the political challenges natural disasters can pose to local officials, governors and the president.
How Trump Talks About Race
Aug 21, 2017 • 49 min
The team talks to political science professor Vincent Hutchings about the way Donald Trump spoke about race in the aftermath of Charlottesville.
Emergency Podcast - Bannon Out
Aug 18, 2017 • 16 min
In this emergency podcast, the team talks about what Steve Bannon’s departure from the White House means for the people who remain.
Trump’s Response To Charlottesville
Aug 14, 2017 • 56 min
President Trump did not condemn white supremacy by name in his initial response to the violence in Charlottesville. The team discusses the reasons and repercussions.
Enter The Grand Jury
Aug 7, 2017 • 46 min
The team weighs the significance of Bob Mueller empaneling a grand jury in the Russia investigation. They also look at persisting rifts in the Democratic Party.
Special Presentation: 30 for 30 Podcasts
Aug 5, 2017 • 17 min
A break from politics with an excerpt of a new audio documentary from 30 for 30 Podcasts, which our very own Jody Avirgan heads up. We present “The Fighter Inside,” reported by Andrew Mambo. More at
White House Chaos
Jul 31, 2017 • 51 min
The team breaks down the latest White House staffing shakeups and asks how Chief of Staff John Kelly might correct course amid the chaos.
Emergency Podcast - Senate Repeal Fails
Jul 28, 2017 • 23 min
The podcast team breaks down the final votes and weighs who is most responsible for the Republican failure: Trump, McConnell or Ryan.
The GOP’s Last(?) Ditch Health Care Push
Jul 24, 2017 • 40 min
The podcast team considers the options for Senate Republicans as they face a last ditch effort to repeal the ACA. Plus, how different would a Clinton presidency have been?
Six Months In
Jul 17, 2017 • 44 min
The podcast team digests the Senate’s latest health care bill and debates which path Trump’s presidency is on six months in.
Emergency Podcast - Don Jr.’s Emails
Jul 13, 2017 • 25 min
The podcast team reacts to emails in which Donald Trump Jr. accepts a meeting with a Kremlin-linked lawyer offering dirt on Hillary Clinton.
Why Trump Wants Voter Data
Jul 10, 2017 • 48 min
The crew discusses the Trump administration’s request for voter data and why states are pushing back. Plus, with another good jobs report, can Trump claim to own the economy?
Trump Goes Global
Jul 6, 2017 • 38 min
Ahead of the G20 summit, the podcast team looks at changes in global perceptions of American leadership since Trump took office.
The Health Care Episode
Jun 26, 2017 • 50 min
The podcast team discusses the policies in the Senate GOP health care bill and debates whether it’s likely to pass.
Emergency Podcast - Georgia And South Carolina Specials
Jun 20, 2017 • 29 min
The podcast team responds to the results of the special elections in Georgia’s 6th district and South Carolina’s 5th district.
The Most Special Special Election
Jun 19, 2017 • 50 min
The special election in Georgia’s 6th district has become the most expensive House election in American history. The podcast team debates how much it matters.
Trump Under Investigation
Jun 15, 2017 • 19 min
The podcast team responds to new reports that President Trump is under FBI investigation for obstruction of justice.
The Base
Jun 12, 2017 • 50 min
The podcast team debates who actually makes up the base in each party and what role they will play in upcoming elections.
Emergency Podcast - Hung Parliament
Jun 9, 2017 • 27 min
No party won a majority in the U.K. election, resulting in a hung parliament. The podcast team reacts.
Emergency Podcast - Comey’s Testimony
Jun 8, 2017 • 28 min
The podcast team reacts to former FBI Director James Comey’s testimony about the events that lead up to his firing by President Trump.
Emergency Podcast - Comey’s Prepared Testimony
Jun 7, 2017 • 22 min
The podcast team discusses former FBI Director James Comey’s prepared testimony to the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence.
Pittsburgh vs. Paris
Jun 5, 2017 • 49 min
The podcast team debates the political savvy of Trump’s exit from the Paris climate agreement. Nate takes a look at what’s going on in the crazy world of UK elections polls.
Do Democrats Need A Win?
May 30, 2017 • 53 min
The podcast team debates whether a Democratic loss in Montana’s special election means challenges ahead for the party. They also parse smoke from fire in the Russia scandal.
What Now?
May 22, 2017 • 52 min
After the appointment of a special counsel to investigate possible ties between Trump’s campaign and Russia, can the White House return to business as usual?
Emergency Podcast - The Comey Memo
May 17, 2017 • 24 min
The podcast crew assesses the fallout from reports of a memo by former FBI Director Comey in which he detailed conversations with President Trump.
The Scandal Meter
May 15, 2017 • 46 min
The podcast team sizes up how big of a scandal Comey’s firing actually is. They also discuss how the census director’s departure could affect the upcoming census.
Emergency Podcast: Trump Fires Comey
May 9, 2017 • 13 min
News broke late on Tuesday that President Trump fired FBI Director James Comey. We hop in the studio to discuss.
Health Care Winners And Losers
May 8, 2017 • 48 min
The podcast team talks to Anna Barry-Jester about how the GOP health care bill will affect real people. They also discuss the sizable polling miss in the French election.
Emergency Health Care Podcast II
May 5, 2017 • 32 min
The podcast team talks about the political implications of the AHCA health care bill passing the House.
99 Trial Balloons
May 1, 2017 • 45 min
The podcast team makes sense of Trump’s one page tax plan with Ben Casselman. They also debate how the media has performed 100 days into the Trump presidency.
100 Days
Apr 24, 2017 • 52 min
The team assesses Trump’s legislative agenda as he ends his first 100 days. They also discuss the Earth Day protests and gauge populism’s appeal after the French election.
Georgia’s 6th - Live From New York
Apr 19, 2017 • 67 min
The podcast team responds to GA-6 results live from the Comedy Cellar in New York. They also discuss upcoming European elections, play trivia and answer audience questions.
Trump’s Paths, Revisited
Apr 17, 2017 • 48 min
The podcast team assesses the special elections in Kansas and Georgia and takes stock of President Trump’s governing style as his administration approaches 100 days.
The Trump Doctrine (Maybe?)
Apr 10, 2017 • 46 min
The podcast team talks about Trump’s decision to authorize airstrikes against Assad’s regime in Syria and tracks who in Trump’s circle is gaining and losing influence.
Sparks: Why Health Care Costs So Much
Apr 8, 2017 • 50 min
Our science team discusses Elizabeth Rosenthal’s “An American Sickness.” To catch part two, subscribe to What’s The Point in iTunes or
Filibuster Time
Apr 3, 2017 • 43 min
The podcast team discusses the political calculus of Democrats filibustering Supreme Court nominee Neil Gorsuch. The crew also plays a new game: Smoke or Fire?
Live From Boise
Mar 27, 2017 • 39 min
The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live from the Treefort Fest in Boise, Idaho. The team talks to Mayor Dave Bieter, plays a round of political trivia and answers questions.
Emergency Health Care Podcast: Live From Boise
Mar 24, 2017 • 21 min
Live from the Hackfort Festival in Boise, Idaho the podcast discusses the decision by Republicans to pull their health care bill without a vote in the House.
Three Polls And A SCOTUS Nominee
Mar 20, 2017 • 47 min
The podcast team discusses what to expect during a week of SCOTUS confirmation hearings and debates whether Americans’ views on healthcare have truly shifted.
Mar 13, 2017 • 50 min
The podcast team discusses whether the new GOP health care bill has a shot at becoming law. David Wasserman also joins the show to help measure trends in partisanship.
Hot Takedown: Politics In Sports
Mar 9, 2017 • 19 min
We bring you an excerpt from FiveThirtyEight’s Hot Takedown podcast about why politics are more visible in sports today. Subscribe at (And if you’re going to be at SXSW, come see Jody’s events!)
Anatomy Of A Scandal
Mar 6, 2017 • 52 min
In light of continued questions over the Trump administration’s relationship with Russia, Brandon Rottinghaus joins the podcast to talk about what can make a scandal damaging.
Party People
Feb 27, 2017 • 60 min
The podcast team wraps up the Party Time series and welcomes Perry Bacon Jr. to the staff, who will be covering the Trump administration from DC.
Party Time: ‘Establishment’ Democrats
Feb 23, 2017 • 48 min
In the final installment of “Party Time,” Galen Druke and Clare Malone speak with so-called “establishment” Democrats about what went wrong in 2016 and what’s to come.
A Month Of Trump
Feb 21, 2017 • 44 min
The Trump administration is one month old. The podcast team reflects on the biggest changes so far.
Party Time: The Bernie Sanders Party
Feb 16, 2017 • 50 min
In the third installment of “Party Time,” Galen Druke and Clare Malone speak with Bernie Sanders supporters about their vision for the future of the Democratic Party.
Emergency Podcast: This Russia Stuff
Feb 15, 2017 • 27 min
Nate Silver, Jody Avirgan, and Micah Cohen jump into the studio to discuss what’s smoke and what’s fire in the latest reporting around the Donald Trump camp’s ties to Russia.
Tea Party Parallels
Feb 13, 2017 • 50 min
Political observers are drawing parallels between today’s anti-Trump protests and the tea party protests of 2009. The podcast crew digs into whether the comparisons are apt.
Party Time: Republicans Skeptical Of Trump
Feb 9, 2017 • 48 min
In the second installment of “Party Time,” Galen Druke and Clare Malone speak with Republicans who are wary of Trump about where the GOP is headed.
Trump Vs. The Courts
Feb 6, 2017 • 48 min
The podcast team weighs in on Trump’s response after a judge temporarily blocked his travel ban. They also discuss Trump’s take on negative polls and his economic plan.
Party Time: The GOP Under Trump
Feb 2, 2017 • 44 min
In the first episode of our mini-series “Party Time,” Galen Druke and Clare Malone speak with Trump allies about where the Republican Party is headed in the era of Trump.
Emergency Podcast: The SCOTUS Battle Ahead
Feb 1, 2017 • 29 min
The usual crew is joined by 538’s Oliver Roeder (aka @ollie) to discuss the nomination of Neil Gorsuch to the Supreme Court, his history on the bench, and what comes next.
Chaos At The White House
Jan 30, 2017 • 55 min
President Trump’s first week in office proved chaotic. The podcast crew looks for a strategy behind the chaos and talks to Meenekshi Bose about the shakeup in NSC membership.
The Beginning Of The Trump Presidency
Jan 23, 2017 • 49 min
Donald Trump’s first few days as president were marked by executive orders, “alternative facts” and mass protests. Julia Azari and Erica Chenoweth help make sense of it.
Trump Vs. The Polls — Vol. II
Jan 17, 2017 • 48 min
President-elect Trump is waging a new battle against polling, arguing his approval rating is “rigged.” We break down the difference between approval rating and horserace polls
Trump And The Senate
Jan 9, 2017 • 47 min
The podcast team looks at the budding relationship between the Trump administration and the U.S. Senate. Confirmation hearings begin this week and ACA debate is underway.
Data Under Trump
Jan 2, 2017 • 55 min
A special episode on government data and the coming Trump administration. Featuring our usual crew and 538’s Ben Casselman, Maggie Koerth-Baker, and Carl Bialik.
538 + The West Wing Weekly (Live)
Dec 26, 2016 • 45 min
Audio from our live show at LA’s Crest Theater this summer discussing the use of polling in The West Wing. Subscribe to TWWW here!
2016 Final Thoughts
Dec 19, 2016 • 48 min
The podcast takes a moment to look back on 2016. They also discuss the latest from North Carolina’s legislature and assess the future of Midwest electoral politics.
Russian Interference
Dec 12, 2016 • 45 min
The podcast crew discusses the latest news on Russia’s interference in the presidential election and Amy Walter joins the show to talk about “draining the swamp.”
Still Processing…
Dec 5, 2016 • 52 min
Nate and Harry report on a post-election forum where it was clear that emotions are still very raw. Then, economics editor Ben Casselman discusses Trump’s new deals.
Recount, Really?
Nov 28, 2016 • 53 min
The team discusses whether Jill Stein’s push for ballot recounts in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania defies norms. They also debate how to cover Trump’s tweets.
Americans Don’t Trust Their Institutions
Nov 21, 2016 • 48 min
Julia Azari joins the show to talk about the historical precedent for Trump’s administration thus far. Clare Malone talks about her latest reporting on trust in institutions.
The Transition Begins
Nov 14, 2016 • 47 min
The podcast crew uses new data to assess the conventional wisdom about the election and looks at President-elect Trump’s first decisions in his new role.
Model Talk Debriefs The 2016 Results
Nov 11, 2016 • 34 min
Good Use Of Polling Or Bad Use Of Polling: The Model
President Trump
Nov 9, 2016 • 41 min
The day after Donald Trump won the 2016 election, our podcast crew gathered to discuss the path he took to secure the Electoral College while losing the popular vote.
Long Night; We’ll Be Back In The Morning
Nov 8, 2016 • 0 min
Just a quick note to tell you that we’re going to do a podcast mid-morning Wednesday to process Election Day 2016. Talk then.
It’s Here - Final Election Preview
Nov 7, 2016 • 74 min
In our final preview of the 2016 election we assess the forecast model, discuss defining moments of the campaign and prepare for Election Day.
2 Days Left - House And Senate Preview
Nov 6, 2016 • 48 min
Dave Wasserman and Harry Enten discuss what to expect on Tuesday in key House and Senate races. We’ll do our final presidential preview on Monday.
Bonus: Our Elections Docs
Nov 6, 2016 • 108 min
Revisit our three audio documentaries on past political moments. The Real Dean Scream | Obama/Wright (starts at 30:15) | Perot The Spoiler? (starts at 1:07:30)
3 Days Left (Diner Pod!)
Nov 5, 2016 • 30 min
Jody, Clare and Farai head to the diner to talk about the final days of the campaign, Latino turnout, lessons from Brexit and more.
4 Days Left
Nov 4, 2016 • 36 min
Today we talk about recent polls, how the media is covering the final days, and look at a vague Florida ballot initiative. Today’s vid:
5 Days Left
Nov 3, 2016 • 27 min
The team discusses Clinton’s polling trend lines, one Ohio bellwether county, and minimum wage initiatives. Today’s vid:
6 Days Left
Nov 2, 2016 • 30 min
Today the crew discusses why there are fewer polls this cycle, how to read early voting numbers, and WA’s proposed carbon tax. Today’s vid: