FiveThirtyEight Politics

FiveThirtyEight Politics
Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team cover the latest in politics, tracking the issues and “game-changers” every week.
Lessons From Alabama
Dec 18 • 44 min
The politics team sorts through the hot takes from last week’s Senate election in Alabama. They also discuss the political implications of the proposed GOP tax overhaul.
The Gerrymandering Project: North Carolina
Dec 14 • 43 min
A decades long debate has raged over how to ensure minorities have a voice in America. In the third installment of our series, we look at racial gerrymandering.
Emergency Podcast: Doug Jones Wins
Dec 13 • 30 min
Doug Jones became the first Democrat to win a Senate race in Alabama in a quarter century. The team discusses the factors that converged to make that possible.
The Alabama Election Is Here
Dec 11 • 52 min
The Alabama special Senate election is Tuesday. The polls have varied significantly in an election where turnout is hard to predict. The team weighs in on what to expect.
The Gerrymandering Project: Wisconsin
Dec 7 • 38 min
Is partisan gerrymandering illegal? In the second installment of our gerrymandering series we look at a Supreme Court case that could reshape how we draw political boundaries.
Are Taxes A Pyrrhic Victory?
Dec 4 • 53 min
The Senate passed a tax overhaul bill Friday night. The team weighs the political and policy implications and follow up on the fallout from Michael Flynn’s guilty plea.
Emergency Podcast: Flynn Flips
Dec 1 • 15 min
A quick conversation in reaction the big news that Michael Flynn pleaded guilty to lying to the FBI about conversations with Russian officials.
The Gerrymandering Project: Intro
Nov 30 • 30 min
What is gerrymandering? This is the first episode in a six-part series exploring the effects of gerrymandering and how reformers hope to change the system.
Congress’s Broken Culture
Nov 27 • 44 min
Lawmakers return to Washington under pressure to confront sexual harassment by their own ranks. The podcast team also looks at the latest in the Alabama special Senate race.
Alabama Is Tied
Nov 20 • 47 min
The Alabama special Senate race is now tied, after numerous accusation that Republican Roy Moore molested and assaulted teenage girls. The podcast team reacts.
Franken Is Accused Of Harassment
Nov 16 • 22 min
Leeann Tweeden accused Senator Al Franken of kissing and groping her without her consent while on a USO tour in the Middle East. The podcast team reacts.
Alabama’s Senate Race
Nov 13 • 42 min
Five women have accused Roy Moore, Republican candidate for Senate from Alabama, of sexual misconduct. The team assesses how this will affect the final month of the campaign.
2016 Anniversary Talk
Nov 8 • 49 min
A year after the 2016 election, Nate & Micah sit down to discuss what it was like to cover the race - from the mistakes FiveThirtyEight made to the emotions of the final weeks
A Good Night For Democrats
Nov 8 • 19 min
The podcast team responds to strong showing by Democrats across the board on Election Day 2017
Election Day 2017
Nov 6 • 51 min
Will Democrats begin their comeback on Election Day 2017? The podcast team shares advice on which races to watch and what the margins mean.
Sexual Harassment In Media And Politics
Nov 4 • 32 min
Major figures in political journalism are alleged to have been serial sexual harassers. What does it mean to have those men in charge of the way political news gets made?
Mueller’s First Strike
Oct 30 • 44 min
Ex-chairman of the Trump campaign Paul Manafort was indicted along with two other campaign aides as part of Bob Mueller’s special investigation. The team weighs in.
Emergency Podcast - Flake Is Out
Oct 24 • 31 min
GOP Sen. Jeff Flake from Arizona, a repeated Trump critic, announced he will not seek reelection in 2018. The podcast team discusses what that means for Arizona and the GOP.
Could Alabama Go Blue?
Oct 23 • 48 min
The 2017 elections are not far off. The team looks at the candidates and polling in the Virginia governor’s race and Alabama’s special Senate race.
Steve Bannon’s War
Oct 16 • 47 min
Steve Bannon declared “war” on the GOP establishment at the Values Voter Summit last week. The podcast team discusses what that will mean for the 2018 midterms.
Corker Uncorked
Oct 9 • 51 min
GOP Senator Corker and President Trump went at each other over the weekend. The podcast weighs in on how Corker’s criticism of Trump could affect GOP politics.
Trump’s Response To Maria
Oct 2 • 49 min
The Trump administration is facing multiple crises: a mass shooting in Las Vegas, Puerto Rico recovering from hurricane Maria and rising tensions with North Korea.
Is Partisan Gerrymandering Illegal?
Sep 28 • 34 min
The Supreme Court is hearing a partisan gerrymandering case that could reshape how our democracy works. FiveThirtyEight brings you a deep dive into what is at stake.
Trump vs. The NFL
Sep 25 • 56 min
Over the weekend, President Trump targeted the NFL for player protests and was rebuked by owners, players and the players union. The podcast team weighs in.
Emergency Podcast: McCain Is A No
Sep 22 • 14 min
Sen. McCain is a no on the latest ACA repeal effort. The team debates what comes next.
Democrats Divided
Sep 18 • 54 min
As the Democratic Party increasingly embraces single payer healthcare and Clinton weighs in on her primary race against Sanders, the team discusses where the party is headed.
What Happened
Sep 11 • 56 min
Hillary Clinton is releasing a book this week chronicling what went wrong during her 2016 campaign from her perspective. The podcast team sizes up her assessment.
Immigration Politics
Sep 5 • 46 min
The White House has decided to end the DACA program. The podcast team weighs in on how voters view DACA and what Congress’s options are for replacing it.
Harvey Tests Trump
Aug 28 • 57 min
Amid historic flooding in East Texas, the team talks about the political challenges natural disasters can pose to local officials, governors and the president.
How Trump Talks About Race
Aug 21 • 49 min
The team talks to political science professor Vincent Hutchings about the way Donald Trump spoke about race in the aftermath of Charlottesville.
Emergency Podcast - Bannon Out
Aug 18 • 16 min
In this emergency podcast, the team talks about what Steve Bannon’s departure from the White House means for the people who remain.
Trump’s Response To Charlottesville
Aug 14 • 56 min
President Trump did not condemn white supremacy by name in his initial response to the violence in Charlottesville. The team discusses the reasons and repercussions.
Enter The Grand Jury
Aug 7 • 46 min
The team weighs the significance of Bob Mueller empaneling a grand jury in the Russia investigation. They also look at persisting rifts in the Democratic Party.
Special Presentation: 30 for 30 Podcasts
Aug 5 • 17 min
A break from politics with an excerpt of a new audio documentary from 30 for 30 Podcasts, which our very own Jody Avirgan heads up. We present “The Fighter Inside,” reported by Andrew Mambo. More at
White House Chaos
Jul 31 • 51 min
The team breaks down the latest White House staffing shakeups and asks how Chief of Staff John Kelly might correct course amid the chaos.
Emergency Podcast - Senate Repeal Fails
Jul 28 • 23 min
The podcast team breaks down the final votes and weighs who is most responsible for the Republican failure: Trump, McConnell or Ryan.
The GOP’s Last(?) Ditch Health Care Push
Jul 24 • 40 min
The podcast team considers the options for Senate Republicans as they face a last ditch effort to repeal the ACA. Plus, how different would a Clinton presidency have been?
Six Months In
Jul 17 • 44 min
The podcast team digests the Senate’s latest health care bill and debates which path Trump’s presidency is on six months in.
Emergency Podcast - Don Jr.’s Emails
Jul 13 • 25 min
The podcast team reacts to emails in which Donald Trump Jr. accepts a meeting with a Kremlin-linked lawyer offering dirt on Hillary Clinton.
Why Trump Wants Voter Data
Jul 10 • 48 min
The crew discusses the Trump administration’s request for voter data and why states are pushing back. Plus, with another good jobs report, can Trump claim to own the economy?
Trump Goes Global
Jul 6 • 38 min
Ahead of the G20 summit, the podcast team looks at changes in global perceptions of American leadership since Trump took office.
The Health Care Episode
Jun 26 • 50 min
The podcast team discusses the policies in the Senate GOP health care bill and debates whether it’s likely to pass.
Emergency Podcast - Georgia And South Carolina Specials
Jun 21 • 29 min
The podcast team responds to the results of the special elections in Georgia’s 6th district and South Carolina’s 5th district.
The Most Special Special Election
Jun 19 • 50 min
The special election in Georgia’s 6th district has become the most expensive House election in American history. The podcast team debates how much it matters.
Trump Under Investigation
Jun 15 • 19 min
The podcast team responds to new reports that President Trump is under FBI investigation for obstruction of justice.
The Base
Jun 12 • 50 min
The podcast team debates who actually makes up the base in each party and what role they will play in upcoming elections.
Emergency Podcast - Hung Parliament
Jun 9 • 27 min
No party won a majority in the U.K. election, resulting in a hung parliament. The podcast team reacts.
Emergency Podcast - Comey’s Testimony
Jun 8 • 28 min
The podcast team reacts to former FBI Director James Comey’s testimony about the events that lead up to his firing by President Trump.
Emergency Podcast - Comey’s Prepared Testimony
Jun 7 • 22 min
The podcast team discusses former FBI Director James Comey’s prepared testimony to the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence.
Pittsburgh vs. Paris
Jun 5 • 49 min
The podcast team debates the political savvy of Trump’s exit from the Paris climate agreement. Nate takes a look at what’s going on in the crazy world of UK elections polls.
Do Democrats Need A Win?
May 30 • 53 min
The podcast team debates whether a Democratic loss in Montana’s special election means challenges ahead for the party. They also parse smoke from fire in the Russia scandal.
What Now?
May 22 • 52 min
After the appointment of a special counsel to investigate possible ties between Trump’s campaign and Russia, can the White House return to business as usual?
Emergency Podcast - The Comey Memo
May 17 • 24 min
The podcast crew assesses the fallout from reports of a memo by former FBI Director Comey in which he detailed conversations with President Trump.
The Scandal Meter
May 15 • 46 min
The podcast team sizes up how big of a scandal Comey’s firing actually is. They also discuss how the census director’s departure could affect the upcoming census.
Emergency Podcast: Trump Fires Comey
May 9 • 13 min
News broke late on Tuesday that President Trump fired FBI Director James Comey. We hop in the studio to discuss.
Health Care Winners And Losers
May 8 • 48 min
The podcast team talks to Anna Barry-Jester about how the GOP health care bill will affect real people. They also discuss the sizable polling miss in the French election.
Emergency Health Care Podcast II
May 5 • 32 min
The podcast team talks about the political implications of the AHCA health care bill passing the House.
99 Trial Balloons
May 1 • 45 min
The podcast team makes sense of Trump’s one page tax plan with Ben Casselman. They also debate how the media has performed 100 days into the Trump presidency.
100 Days
Apr 24 • 52 min
The team assesses Trump’s legislative agenda as he ends his first 100 days. They also discuss the Earth Day protests and gauge populism’s appeal after the French election.
Georgia’s 6th - Live From New York
Apr 19 • 67 min
The podcast team responds to GA-6 results live from the Comedy Cellar in New York. They also discuss upcoming European elections, play trivia and answer audience questions.
Trump’s Paths, Revisited
Apr 17 • 48 min
The podcast team assesses the special elections in Kansas and Georgia and takes stock of President Trump’s governing style as his administration approaches 100 days.
The Trump Doctrine (Maybe?)
Apr 10 • 46 min
The podcast team talks about Trump’s decision to authorize airstrikes against Assad’s regime in Syria and tracks who in Trump’s circle is gaining and losing influence.
Sparks: Why Health Care Costs So Much
Apr 8 • 50 min
Our science team discusses Elizabeth Rosenthal’s “An American Sickness.” To catch part two, subscribe to What’s The Point in iTunes or
Filibuster Time
Apr 3 • 43 min
The podcast team discusses the political calculus of Democrats filibustering Supreme Court nominee Neil Gorsuch. The crew also plays a new game: Smoke or Fire?
Live From Boise
Mar 27 • 39 min
The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live from the Treefort Fest in Boise, Idaho. The team talks to Mayor Dave Bieter, plays a round of political trivia and answers questions.
Emergency Health Care Podcast: Live From Boise
Mar 24 • 21 min
Live from the Hackfort Festival in Boise, Idaho the podcast discusses the decision by Republicans to pull their health care bill without a vote in the House.
Three Polls And A SCOTUS Nominee
Mar 20 • 47 min
The podcast team discusses what to expect during a week of SCOTUS confirmation hearings and debates whether Americans’ views on healthcare have truly shifted.
Mar 13 • 50 min
The podcast team discusses whether the new GOP health care bill has a shot at becoming law. David Wasserman also joins the show to help measure trends in partisanship.
Hot Takedown: Politics In Sports
Mar 9 • 19 min
We bring you an excerpt from FiveThirtyEight’s Hot Takedown podcast about why politics are more visible in sports today. Subscribe at (And if you’re going to be at SXSW, come see Jody’s events!)
Anatomy Of A Scandal
Mar 6 • 52 min
In light of continued questions over the Trump administration’s relationship with Russia, Brandon Rottinghaus joins the podcast to talk about what can make a scandal damaging.
Party People
Feb 27 • 60 min
The podcast team wraps up the Party Time series and welcomes Perry Bacon Jr. to the staff, who will be covering the Trump administration from DC.
Party Time: ‘Establishment’ Democrats
Feb 23 • 48 min
In the final installment of “Party Time,” Galen Druke and Clare Malone speak with so-called “establishment” Democrats about what went wrong in 2016 and what’s to come.
A Month Of Trump
Feb 21 • 44 min
The Trump administration is one month old. The podcast team reflects on the biggest changes so far.
Party Time: The Bernie Sanders Party
Feb 16 • 50 min
In the third installment of “Party Time,” Galen Druke and Clare Malone speak with Bernie Sanders supporters about their vision for the future of the Democratic Party.
Emergency Podcast: This Russia Stuff
Feb 15 • 27 min
Nate Silver, Jody Avirgan, and Micah Cohen jump into the studio to discuss what’s smoke and what’s fire in the latest reporting around the Donald Trump camp’s ties to Russia.
Tea Party Parallels
Feb 13 • 50 min
Political observers are drawing parallels between today’s anti-Trump protests and the tea party protests of 2009. The podcast crew digs into whether the comparisons are apt.
Party Time: Republicans Skeptical Of Trump
Feb 9 • 48 min
In the second installment of “Party Time,” Galen Druke and Clare Malone speak with Republicans who are wary of Trump about where the GOP is headed.
Trump Vs. The Courts
Feb 6 • 48 min
The podcast team weighs in on Trump’s response after a judge temporarily blocked his travel ban. They also discuss Trump’s take on negative polls and his economic plan.
Party Time: The GOP Under Trump
Feb 2 • 44 min
In the first episode of our mini-series “Party Time,” Galen Druke and Clare Malone speak with Trump allies about where the Republican Party is headed in the era of Trump.
Emergency Podcast: The SCOTUS Battle Ahead
Feb 1 • 29 min
The usual crew is joined by 538’s Oliver Roeder (aka @ollie) to discuss the nomination of Neil Gorsuch to the Supreme Court, his history on the bench, and what comes next.
Chaos At The White House
Jan 30 • 55 min
President Trump’s first week in office proved chaotic. The podcast crew looks for a strategy behind the chaos and talks to Meenekshi Bose about the shakeup in NSC membership.
The Beginning Of The Trump Presidency
Jan 23 • 49 min
Donald Trump’s first few days as president were marked by executive orders, “alternative facts” and mass protests. Julia Azari and Erica Chenoweth help make sense of it.
Trump Vs. The Polls — Vol. II
Jan 17 • 48 min
President-elect Trump is waging a new battle against polling, arguing his approval rating is “rigged.” We break down the difference between approval rating and horserace polls
Trump And The Senate
Jan 9 • 47 min
The podcast team looks at the budding relationship between the Trump administration and the U.S. Senate. Confirmation hearings begin this week and ACA debate is underway.
Data Under Trump
Jan 2 • 55 min
A special episode on government data and the coming Trump administration. Featuring our usual crew and 538’s Ben Casselman, Maggie Koerth-Baker, and Carl Bialik.
538 + The West Wing Weekly (Live)
Dec 26, 2016 • 45 min
Audio from our live show at LA’s Crest Theater this summer discussing the use of polling in The West Wing. Subscribe to TWWW here!
2016 Final Thoughts
Dec 19, 2016 • 48 min
The podcast takes a moment to look back on 2016. They also discuss the latest from North Carolina’s legislature and assess the future of Midwest electoral politics.
Russian Interference
Dec 12, 2016 • 45 min
The podcast crew discusses the latest news on Russia’s interference in the presidential election and Amy Walter joins the show to talk about “draining the swamp.”
Still Processing…
Dec 5, 2016 • 52 min
Nate and Harry report on a post-election forum where it was clear that emotions are still very raw. Then, economics editor Ben Casselman discusses Trump’s new deals.
Recount, Really?
Nov 28, 2016 • 53 min
The team discusses whether Jill Stein’s push for ballot recounts in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania defies norms. They also debate how to cover Trump’s tweets.
Americans Don’t Trust Their Institutions
Nov 21, 2016 • 48 min
Julia Azari joins the show to talk about the historical precedent for Trump’s administration thus far. Clare Malone talks about her latest reporting on trust in institutions.
The Transition Begins
Nov 14, 2016 • 47 min
The podcast crew uses new data to assess the conventional wisdom about the election and looks at President-elect Trump’s first decisions in his new role.
Model Talk Debriefs The 2016 Results
Nov 11, 2016 • 34 min
Good Use Of Polling Or Bad Use Of Polling: The Model
President Trump
Nov 9, 2016 • 41 min
The day after Donald Trump won the 2016 election, our podcast crew gathered to discuss the path he took to secure the Electoral College while losing the popular vote.
Long Night; We’ll Be Back In The Morning
Nov 9, 2016 • 0 min
Just a quick note to tell you that we’re going to do a podcast mid-morning Wednesday to process Election Day 2016. Talk then.
It’s Here - Final Election Preview
Nov 7, 2016 • 74 min
In our final preview of the 2016 election we assess the forecast model, discuss defining moments of the campaign and prepare for Election Day.
2 Days Left - House And Senate Preview
Nov 6, 2016 • 48 min
Dave Wasserman and Harry Enten discuss what to expect on Tuesday in key House and Senate races. We’ll do our final presidential preview on Monday.
Bonus: Our Elections Docs
Nov 6, 2016 • 108 min
Revisit our three audio documentaries on past political moments. The Real Dean Scream | Obama/Wright (starts at 30:15) | Perot The Spoiler? (starts at 1:07:30)
3 Days Left (Diner Pod!)
Nov 5, 2016 • 30 min
Jody, Clare and Farai head to the diner to talk about the final days of the campaign, Latino turnout, lessons from Brexit and more.
4 Days Left
Nov 4, 2016 • 36 min
Today we talk about recent polls, how the media is covering the final days, and look at a vague Florida ballot initiative. Today’s vid:
5 Days Left
Nov 3, 2016 • 27 min
The team discusses Clinton’s polling trend lines, one Ohio bellwether county, and minimum wage initiatives. Today’s vid:
6 Days Left
Nov 2, 2016 • 30 min
Today the crew discusses why there are fewer polls this cycle, how to read early voting numbers, and WA’s proposed carbon tax. Today’s vid:
7 Days Left
Nov 1, 2016 • 30 min
In today’s episode the crew talks about remaining surprises, how the model makes final calculations, and CA’s proposition conundrum. Today’s vid:
8 Days Left
Oct 31, 2016 • 42 min
In the latest of our daily podcasts, the crew talks about the media’s response to James Comey’s letter to Congress and discusses which states are in play in the final week.
10 Days Left (Blue Plate Special)
Oct 29, 2016 • 30 min
Jody, Harry and Micah hit the diner to talk about the latest in the FBI investigation of Clinton’s emails, what counts as an “October surprise” and more. Next show is Monday.
11* Days Left
Oct 28, 2016 • 20 min
It’s Friday and we have a new installment of ‘Model Talk!’ Nate Silver and Micah Cohen answer listener question about the forecast, recent trends and early voting.
12 Days Left
Oct 27, 2016 • 29 min
In the latest of our daily podcasts counting down to Election Day, we talk about new polls in Virginia and Georgia and look inside Trump’s data game.
13 Days Left
Oct 26, 2016 • 25 min
In the first of our daily podcasts counting down to Election Day, we talk about tightening polls in Utah, leaked memos, and ballot measures.
A Two-Weeks-Until-Election-Day Extravaganza
Oct 25, 2016 • 58 min
Live from NYC, we discuss the state of the map, why the House probably won’t flip, and indulge a counterfactual 2016 election. We are doing a show every day through Nov 9th!
DOC: The Real Legacy Of Ross Perot
Oct 23, 2016 • 41 min
Did Ross Perot spoil the 1992 election? Our latest audio documentary explores his impact on the ‘92 race and the appeal of the political outsider.
Evan McMullin Is In The Model
Oct 21, 2016 • 20 min
Nate and Micah discuss lingering uncertainties in the presidential race, including Evan McMullin’s surge in Utah. We have a live show in NYC Oct. 24th
Third Debate Response
Oct 20, 2016 • 22 min
The podcast crew breaks down the third and final presidential debate, in which Donald Trump would not commit to accepting the results of the election.
What Wikileaks Shows
Oct 17, 2016 • 41 min
We discuss Donald Trump’s increased talk of a “rigged” election, the latest WIkileaks revelations, and more.
What A Week
Oct 14, 2016 • 30 min
An all-hands-on-deck emergency podcast to break down a week of sexual assault allegations, GOP infighting, and conspiracy theories.
The Voters Part 3 - Undecided
Oct 12, 2016 • 29 min
Farai Chideya hosts a three-part series on the demographic groups that will help decide the election, with special guest Asma Khalid. In this installment: undecided voters.
Second Debate Reaction
Oct 10, 2016 • 40 min
After the second Clinton-Trump debate, the team gathers in the 538 offices to talk about what went down, and this very strange moment in American politics.
“When You’re A Star, You Can Do Anything”
Oct 8, 2016 • 45 min
Hours before our live Chicago taping, lewd and sexist comments by Donald Trump appeared online. We react to the news and preview Sunday’s debate.
The Voters Part 2 - Democrats
Oct 5, 2016 • 24 min
Farai Chideya hosts a three-part series on the demographic groups that will help decide this election, with special guest Asma Khalid. In the second installment: Democrats.
VP Debate Extravaganza
Oct 5, 2016 • 22 min
After watching Mike Pence and Tim Kaine duke it out, the crew gathers for a late-night, high-energy, VP-debate wrap-up. There’s not much to say.
October’s First Surprise
Oct 3, 2016 • 53 min
The crew discusses the glimpse we got of Donald Trump’s tax returns, the post-debate bump for Clinton, and what to expect from the VP debate. Come to the NYC live show 10/24!
The Voters Part 1 - Republicans
Sep 28, 2016 • 20 min
Farai Chideya hosts a three-part series on the demographic groups that will help decide this election, with special guest Asma Khalid. In the first installment: Republicans.
First Debate Response
Sep 27, 2016 • 29 min
The first 2016 presidential debate is behind us. In a late night response podcast, the team tracks wins and losses on performance and policy.
FiveThirtyEight Elections
Sep 26, 2016 • 1 min
Lightning Round: First Debate Preview
Sep 26, 2016 • 23 min
Five quick questions, and quick answers, to set you up for the first debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. Join the live-blog tonight starting at 8pm ET.
The Senate Forecast Is Live
Sep 23, 2016 • 24 min
The Senate forecast is live! Nate Silver and Micah Cohen review the key races in the contest for control of the Senate. For NYC live show details
We’re On Broadway! (Kinda)
Sep 20, 2016 • 54 min
Live from Playstation Theater, we discuss the response to the NY and MN terror attacks, preview next week’s debate, and more. Plus the next round of obscure election trivia.
Emergency Diner Pod: Clinton’s Rough Polls
Sep 16, 2016 • 24 min
Did Hillary Clinton’s rough week of polling set a new baseline for the election? Jody, Clare, and Harry hit the diner on Friday night to discuss, and eat whole grain waffles.
Baskets, In Context
Sep 12, 2016 • 57 min
We discuss the content and delivery of Hillary Clinton’s comments about Trump’s “basket of deplorables.” Plus how to cover health, and the role of real-time Election Day data.
“I’m The Trump Of Data Journalism”
Sep 9, 2016 • 22 min
Nate Silver and Micah Cohen explain the latest movement in the forecast including why Ohio is less of a tipping point. We also announce ticket sales for our Chicago live show.
The Tightening
Sep 6, 2016 • 53 min
We assess how the media tries to provide “balanced” election coverage. Plus, what to make of the tightening polls. Remember, we’ve got live shows in NYC (9/19) and CHI (10/7)!
Extra: Enten vs. Polls; Druke vs. Luntz
Sep 3, 2016 • 28 min
Two extras for your holiday weekend: the latest in our collaboration with On The Media, and then an interview producer Galen Druke did with the pollster Frank Luntz.
Summer’s Over
Aug 29, 2016 • 49 min
We try to set some basic rules for the home stretch of the election. NYC: Come to our live show on Sept 19th! Info at
Forecast Update - Correlated States
Aug 26, 2016 • 27 min
We are checking in on FiveThirtyEight’s prediction model every other Friday. Nate Silver talks to Micah Cohen about how the numbers have moved and why.
Says Who? Polls.
Aug 22, 2016 • 53 min
Trump aired his first TV ad of the general election last week, but Clinton has already spent millions on them. We compare how the campaigns are spending their cash.
Clinton Republicans
Aug 15, 2016 • 42 min
The number of Republicans publicly supporting Clinton is on the rise. We look at who is most likely to crossover and whether they will affect Clinton’s platform.
It’s Unskew Season
Aug 8, 2016 • 56 min
We discuss the return of “unskewed” polls, whether Clinton’s big lead is the new normal, and talk to Julia Azari about why this is the perfect year for third parties.
Are You In Love With The Model?
Aug 1, 2016 • 58 min
It’s 100 days until Elections Day. After two weeks on the road, the podcast crew looks at the forecast’s latest ups and downs.
DNC Wrap: To The General
Jul 29, 2016 • 29 min
Our politics podcast crew finds a corner of the DNC to debrief Hillary Clinton’s acceptance speech, who she’s targeting, and what comes to expect from day one of the general.
DNC: Obama’s Role
Jul 28, 2016 • 21 min
Nate Silver, Clare Malone, and Jody Avirgan talk about the third day of the DNC, which featured president Obama, and preview tonight’s Hillary Clinton speech.
DNC: Those Tightening Polls (From On Point)
Jul 26, 2016 • 13 min
Harry and Nate join On Point with Tom Ashbrook to discuss the tightening polls and the fact that - if the election were held today - Donald Trump would be slightly favored.
DNC: Bernie On Board
Jul 26, 2016 • 25 min
Jody Avirgan, Farai Chideya, Clare Malone and producer Galen Druke talk about day one of the DNC, their conversations with Bernie Sanders protesters, and more.
DNC Preview: Can The Democrats Get It Together?
Jul 25, 2016 • 54 min
We’re in Philly! Jody Avirgan, Nate Silver, Clare Malone, Farai Chideya and Harry Enten talk about the DNC email leak, the Kaine pick, and what to expect this week.
RNC Wrap: Law And Order
Jul 22, 2016 • 20 min
As the RNC is disassembled around them, Jody Avirgan, Nate Silver, Clare Malone, and Harry Enten record their late-night reaction to Donald Trump’s acceptance speech.
RNC Emergency Pod! Boos Cruz
Jul 21, 2016 • 14 min
From a borrowed couch in the Cleveland arena, Jody Avirgan, Harry Enten, and Clare Malone react to a wild third night of the RNC, which featured huge boos for Ted Cruz.
RNC: Nate And Harry On On Point
Jul 20, 2016 • 17 min
From radio row at the RNC, Nate Silver and Harry Enten talk about the state of polling and the 2016 race with Tom Ashbrook of On Point radio.
RNC: Nate Silver Meets John Dickerson
Jul 19, 2016 • 29 min
From our Facebook live session on Tuesday morning, Nate talks to John Dickerson about day 1 of the RNC, and the art of covering the Trump campaign.
Your RNC Primer
Jul 18, 2016 • 53 min
From our Cleveland hotel room, we preview what to expect at the RNC this week — rules fights, platform changes, protests and pageantry.
Emergency Podcast: Pence Fever!
Jul 15, 2016 • 21 min
We break the glass on the emergency podcast to discuss Donald Trump’s choice of Mike Pence as his running mate. Plus, what to make of the tightening polls.
Kitchen Table Politics: An Earned Retirement
Jul 13, 2016 • 27 min
The last in our five-part series, each episode tied to a different stage in life, from birth through retirement. Hosted by Farai Chideya.
It’s Not 1968
Jul 11, 2016 • 62 min
After a fraught week, some context for our scary political times. Plus: Trump’s VP, Sanders readies an endorsement, and why Harry doesn’t vote.
Kitchen Table Politics: Healthcare Costs
Jul 6, 2016 • 26 min
Part four in our five-part series, each episode tied to a different stage in life, from birth through retirement. Hosted by Farai Chideya. Tell us your story: 646-820-0538
The FBI Weighs In
Jul 5, 2016 • 49 min
The FBI’s James Comey spent much of his press conference excoriating Hillary Clinton’s email practices, then announced no charges. We discuss. Plus: that Trump star tweet.
Kitchen Table Politics: Good Jobs
Jun 29, 2016 • 30 min
Part three in our five-part series, each episode tied to a different stage in life, from birth through retirement. Hosted by Farai Chideya. Tell us your story: 646-820-0538
The Model (Live From SF)
Jun 27, 2016 • 44 min
Live from San Francisco, we discuss our general election forecast; Harry vs. Nate trivia, and the best listener mail ever. To see the letter go to
Emergency Live-Show Brexit Result Pod
Jun 24, 2016 • 18 min
The news of the UK’s “leave” vote broke while we were on stage in San Francisco. We started talking about it, along with our audience. Featuring Farai Chideya.
Kitchen Table Politics: College For All
Jun 23, 2016 • 25 min
Part two in our five-part series, each episode tied to a different stage in life, from birth through retirement. Hosted by Farai Chideya. Tell us your story: 646-820-0538
Brexit Polls Are A Mess
Jun 20, 2016 • 53 min
We discuss Thursday’s UK referendum on whether to leave the EU with Tom Clark of The Guardian. Plus: what to make of Donald Trump’s no-good, very-bad June.
Kitchen Table Politics: The Cost Of Caring For Kids
Jun 16, 2016 • 27 min
The first in our five-part series, each episode tied to a different stage in life, from birth through retirement. Hosted by Farai Chideya. Tell us your story: 646-820-0538
Jun 13, 2016 • 60 min
The day after the deadliest mass shooting in U.S. history, we discuss the many layers of tragedy, the political response, and how we categorize incidents like this.
On The Media: Trump And Us
Jun 11, 2016 • 40 min
An excerpt of this week’s show from our friends at On The Media, all about the (changing?) relationship between Trump and the press. Find more at
Goodbye, Primaries
Jun 6, 2016 • 54 min
We preview the last big day of primary voting, and take stock of how far we’ve come. Also, want to take part in our new project? Tell us your story: 646-820-0538
A Third Party’s Moment
May 31, 2016 • 46 min
Can a third party or independent candidate make a dent this fall? Plus: we break down the map of states Trump is targeting. More at
DOC: Obama And His Pastor
May 26, 2016 • 37 min
In 08 candidate Barack Obama had to address incendiary remarks by Rev Jeremiah Wright. Our new doc goes behind the scenes of the scandal and the lessons about race in America.
Tighten Up
May 23, 2016 • 46 min
Guest host Micah Cohen and the elections podcast crew discuss the tightening Clinton/Trump polls; Bernie Sanders vs. the DNC; and the poll about DC’s football team name.
Meanwhile, Downballot
May 16, 2016 • 52 min
How will Trump’s spot at the top of the GOP ticket affect congressional races? Dave Wasserman previews the main story lines. Plus, “shy Trump-ers” and social issues fade away.
Harry, Neil, And Black Swans
May 12, 2016 • 12 min
Harry Enten joins his pal Neil Paine to discuss what it’s like to cover improbable events, from Leicester City to Donald Trump. Subscribe to Hot Takedown now!
Paul Ryan Isn’t Happy
May 9, 2016 • 49 min
Donald Trump and the GOP played nice — for about 12 hours. We discuss the state of the Republican party. Plus: What should journalists learn from Trump’s victory.
Trump Steals The (Live) Show
May 5, 2016 • 65 min
Our first live show, at 6th and I synagogue in DC, landed on the day after Donald Trump became the presumptive GOP nominee. Plus: VP talk, and Harry vs Nate election trivia.
Stop Trump’s Last Stand (Probably)
May 2, 2016 • 38 min
Farai Chideya joins the podcast to preview the Indiana primary and assess the impact of Bernie Sanders on the Democratic party. For more visit
Kasich And Cruz Are Scheming
Apr 25, 2016 • 40 min
The team discusses whether the two underdogs’ plan to divide and conquer will actually force an open convention. For more visit
Nate Silver On Longform
Apr 22, 2016 • 22 min
Nate was a recent guest on the (excellent) Longform podcast, talking about some things you don’t always hear him discuss on this show. Full episode at
Start Spreading The News
Apr 18, 2016 • 56 min
The primary comes to New York. Plus, what you need to know about the Democratic superdelegates. For more, visit
Clinton v. Sanders vs. Clinton v. Obama
Apr 15, 2016 • 22 min
We convene an emergency podcast to ask: Is the 2016 Democratic primary nastier than the 2008 Democratic primary?
Is Trump Blowing It?
Apr 11, 2016 • 43 min
We take stock of the latest in the hunt for GOP delegates and try to figure out what is wrong with Donald Trump’s ground game. Then, the first installment of Harry’s History.
A 538 Elections FAQ
Apr 5, 2016 • 26 min
We answer some of your most frequently asked questions about how the election, polling, and more work. Got a question? Email
The Delegate Hunt Begins
Apr 4, 2016 • 50 min
We preview Wisconsin’s primary and the fight brewing for GOP delegates in preparation for a possible contested convention. Plus, we announce our DC live show - May 4th!
Momentum And Misogyny
Mar 28, 2016 • 45 min
We discuss what “momentum” means and whether Bernie Sanders has it. Plus a look at Donald Trump’s record of sexism on and off the campaign trail.
What Is Kasich Doing?
Mar 21, 2016 • 44 min
Is John Kasich helping or hurting Trump’s chances of winning the nomination? Plus: the political tussle over Merrick Garland’s nomination to the Supreme Court.
A History Of Data In American Politics (1891-2016)
Mar 18, 2016 • 75 min
From What’s The Point, a look at the surprisingly deep history of political data in the United States. With Daniel Kreiss of UNC and FiveThirtyEight’s Jody Avirgan.
Ides Of March Reaction
Mar 16, 2016 • 25 min
Another big night of primaries, and another late-night elections podcast. We discuss Donald Trump’s wins; Marco Rubio’s exit; Kasich’s role; and if Clinton has sealed it up.
Violence At Trump Rallies
Mar 14, 2016 • 47 min
We discuss the incidents of violence at Trump rallies with special guest Farai Chideya and preview the March 15th primaries.
The Biggest Polling Upset Ever
Mar 9, 2016 • 19 min
We convene an emergency podcast to talk about Bernie Sanders’s victory in Michigan, and what it means for the Democratic race.
The Biggest Polling Upset Ever
Mar 9, 2016 • 19 min
We convene an emergency podcast to talk about Bernie Sanders’s victory in Michigan, and what it means for the Democratic race.
Cruz Rising
Mar 7, 2016 • 47 min
We discuss last weekend’s primary results, how Ted Cruz beat the odds in Kansas and Maine, and whether Donald Trump has a ceiling.
On The Media On Predictions
Mar 5, 2016 • 51 min
From our friends at OTM, an hour-long show (featuring Nate Silver) about the world of forecasting. Be sure to subscribe to the On The Media podcast if you don’t already!
Breaking Down Super Tuesday
Mar 2, 2016 • 29 min
As the clock turns from Super Tuesday to Wednesday After Super Tuesday, we offer our initial reactions to the night’s results.