FiveThirtyEight Politics

FiveThirtyEight Politics

www.espn.com/espnradio/podcast/index
Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team cover the latest in politics, tracking the issues and “game-changers” every week.


What Biden’s VP Picks Say About Him
May 28 • 34 min
Perry Bacon Jr. and Julia Azari join the podcast to discuss the process of choosing a VP and what that choice says about the candidate and the party.
Questions About Biden And Trump’s Bases
May 26 • 61 min
The crew discusses a gaffe Biden made during a conversation about black voters and debates the findings of a new study about white working class voters in the 2016 election.
One Virus, A World Full Of Responses
May 21 • 44 min
The COVID-19 pandemic has shown how many countries, with different political systems, handle a very similar crisis — and how the public reacts.
Does Trump Really Want A Fight With Obama?
May 18 • 53 min
The crew looks at evidence that the coronavirus response has grown more partisan. They also discuss the rationale for an election year conflict between Obama and Trump.
Why COVID-19 Conspiracy Theories Are Spreading
May 14 • 45 min
Political scientist Joe Uscinski joins the podcast to discuss the spread of COVID-19 conspiracy theories — why they’ve formed and what can be done about them.
Americans, Not Politicians, Will Decide How We Reopen
May 11 • 48 min
The podcast crew discusses the politics and practicalities of states reopening amid the COVID-19 pandemic. They also consider which party is ahead in the race for the Senate.
What The 14.7% Unemployment Rate Means
May 8 • 32 min
Former Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics Erica Groshen joins the podcast to discuss the latest jobs report, which showed a record unemployment level.
Biden Responds To Sexual Assault Allegation
May 4 • 60 min
The team discusses the politics of Tara Reade’s accusations of sexual assault against Biden and Biden’s denial. They also weigh the impact of a Justin Amash run for president.
The U.S. Is Starting To Reopen. Is It Ready?
Apr 30 • 36 min
States around the country are beginning to reopen. Professor Crystal Watson of the Johns Hopkins School of Public Health discusses the systems they should have in place.
Is COVID-19 Already Hurting Trump Politically?
Apr 27 • 55 min
The crew analyzes recent data showing Trump losing ground in swing states. They also ask how much reactions to the pandemic have been based on partisanship.
Model Talk: Forecasting The Toll Of COVID-19
Apr 22 • 42 min
Dr. Chris Murray, creator of the frequently cited IHME COVID-19 model, joins a special edition of Model Talk.
What Is Motivating The COVID-19 Protests?
Apr 20 • 62 min
The crew discusses why protests against COVID-19 mitigation measures have popped up around the country. They also weigh the pros and cons of Biden’s potential VP picks.
How To Hold An Election During A Crisis
Apr 16 • 51 min
What has the United States done to ensure elections continue during past crises and what can the country do now to ensure this fall’s election goes smoothly?
Our 2020 Election Priors
Apr 13 • 52 min
Now that Democrats have settled on Joe Biden, the crew discusses their priors for the presidential general election. They also track where we are in the COVID-19 pandemic.
Emergency Podcast: Sanders Drops Out
Apr 8 • 31 min
The crew reacts to Sen. Bernie Sanders’s decision to suspend his campaign for president.
Wisconsin’s Election Is A Mess
Apr 6 • 53 min
The crew digs into the challenges facing Wisconsin’s election, given partisanship and the COVID-19 pandemic. They also take stock of where we are in the arc of the crisis.
Why It’s So Hard To Forecast The Impact Of COVID-19
Apr 2 • 33 min
FiveThirtyEight’s science writer Maggie Koerth and quantitative editor Laura Bronner join the podcast to discuss the challenges of modeling the impact of COVID-19.
Why Trump’s Approval Rating Has Increased
Mar 30 • 50 min
The crew discusses where we are in the arc of the COVID-19 crisis, how Americans are rating the president’s performance, and the significance of the DPA.
COVID-19 Broke The Jobless Claims Chart
Mar 26 • 34 min
Economics reporter Ben Casselman joins Galen Druke and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux to discuss the stunning unemployment claims numbers from last week.
How COVID-19 Is — And Isn’t — Changing Politics
Mar 23 • 51 min
The crew discusses how the COVID-19 pandemic is affecting the politics of Washington, D.C. and how it’s disrupting the 2020 presidential race.
How COVID-19 Is Changing The Economy
Mar 20 • 40 min
Economist Tara Sinclair joins Galen Druke and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux to discuss the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic so far.
How COVID-19 Affected Tuesday’s Vote
Mar 18 • 30 min
FiveThirtyEight’s Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux and Nathaniel Rakich discuss the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Tuesday night’s primary elections.
Coronavirus, Uncertainty, Politics
Mar 16 • 50 min
The crew discusses the coronavirus crisis and the uncertainty and politics surrounding it.
Biden And Sanders Debate Amid Pandemic
Mar 15 • 18 min
The crew reacts to the first Biden vs. Sanders one-on-one debate, which took place amid the coronavirus pandemic.
The Democratic Primary Is No Longer Competitive
Mar 11 • 32 min
The crew reacts to the latest round of Democratic primary results, in which Biden far outperformed Sanders.
Is Even Coronavirus Partisan?
Mar 9 • 45 min
The crew discusses the results of a poll on coronavirus and previews the upcoming primary races.
Model Talk: Biden Is A Clear Favorite
Mar 6 • 30 min
Emergency Podcast: Warren Drops Out
Mar 5 • 23 min
The crew reacts to the news that Sen. Elizabeth Warren is suspending her campaign for president.
Biden Won Super Tuesday. What Now?
Mar 4 • 32 min
The crew reacts to Joe Biden’s very strong performance on Super Tuesday and asks what comes next.
What’s At Stake On Super Tuesday
Mar 2 • 55 min
The crew previews the races that will be decided on Super Tuesday and debates the effect Buttigieg’s dropout will have.
Biden Wins Big In South Carolina
Feb 29 • 26 min
The crew reacts to Biden’s big win in South Carolina and discusses what comes next in what looks to be a two person race.
How Rep. James Clyburn Settled On Endorsing Biden
Feb 26 • 33 min
Rep. James Clyburn endorsed Joe Biden on Wednesday. Galen Druke sat down with Clyburn ahead of his endorsement to discuss Biden, South Carolina and the Democratic Party.
What Went Down In The South Carolina Debate
Feb 26 • 40 min
The crew reacts to a messy Democratic debate in South Carolina.
Sanders Wins Big In Nevada
Feb 23 • 36 min
Nate Silver and editor of the Nevada Independent, Jon Ralston, join the podcast from Las Vegas to discuss the results of the Nevada caucuses.
Bloomberg Stumbles In Chaotic Debate
Feb 20 • 36 min
In a late night edition of the podcast, the crew reacts to the Nevada Democratic primary debate.
Can Bloomberg Win?!
Feb 18 • 52 min
The crew discusses Michael Bloomberg’s chances of winning the nomination. They also debate whether Bernie Sanders has a lock on the Nevada caucuses.
Model Talk: The Chance Of Chaos Increases
Feb 14 • 26 min
Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss how the Democratic primary forecast has updated since the New Hampshire primary.
Bernie Sanders Wins New Hampshire
Feb 12 • 31 min
The crew reacts to the results of the New Hampshire primary, including a Sanders win, a close second for Buttigieg and a surprise third place finish for Klobuchar.
Live From Manchester: A New Hampshire Preview
Feb 10 • 69 min
At a live show in Manchester, the crew previews the New Hampshire primary, debates the likelihood of a contested convention and plays a game!
Live From The New Hampshire Debate
Feb 7 • 27 min
The crew reacts to the Democratic primary debate in New Hampshire, from the spin room.
The Results In Iowa
Feb 5 • 47 min
The crew discusses the results — so far — from the Iowa caucuses. They also check in on the race in New Hampshire and the vote to acquit President Trump.
Chaos In Iowa
Feb 4 • 25 min
The crew discusses the lack of results in the Democratic Iowa caucuses.
Model Talk: What To Expect From The Iowa Caucuses
Feb 2 • 38 min
Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the latest polling in the final day before the Iowa caucuses.
Stacey Abrams Thinks She’ll Be President By 2040
Jan 31 • 34 min
As part of our When Women Run series, Clare Malone sat down with Stacey Abrams, former candidate for governor of Georgia.
When Women Run
Jan 29 • 58 min
To better understand what it’s really like to run for office as a woman, we spoke to women from every state who have done it — 97 women in all. These are their stories.
The Sanders Surge
Jan 27 • 59 min
The crew assesses Bernie Sanders’s improvement in the polls a week before the Iowa caucuses. They also discuss reporting from John Bolton’s new book.
The Primaries Project: There’s Gotta Be A Better System…Right?
Jan 23 • 32 min
This is the third installment of our audio documentary series “The Primaries Project,” looking at how our primary system came to be and its effect on American politics.
How Senators Are Calculating Impeachment Politics
Jan 22 • 27 min
FiveThirtyEight’s Perry Bacon Jr. and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux join Galen Druke to discuss the political considerations at play in President Trump’s impeachment trial.
Live From DC: America’s Favorite Sandwich
Jan 20 • 73 min
In front of a live audience in DC, the crew debates the electoral cases of the leading Democratic candidates. The also discuss electability and guess what America thinks.
The Primaries Project: The Effects Of Reform
Jan 15 • 45 min
This is the second installment of our audio documentary series “The Primaries Project,” looking at how our primary system came to be and its effect on American politics.
The Last Pre-Iowa Debate
Jan 15 • 32 min
The crew reacts to the candidates’ performances in the last Democratic primary debate before the Iowa caucuses.
A Four-Way Pileup In Iowa
Jan 13 • 42 min
The crew discusses the latest polling in Iowa, showing a tight four-way race. They also talk about Booker’s decision to dropout and Tom Steyer’s polling in NV and SC.
Model Talk: The Primary Forecast Is Live
Jan 10 • 38 min
FiveThirtyEight’s 2020 Democratic primary forecast is live. In a new installment of “Model Talk” Nate Silver discusses what went into creating it.
The Primaries Project: How 1968 Changed Everything
Jan 9 • 33 min
This is the first installment of our audio documentary series “The Primaries Project,” looking at how our primary system came to be and its effect on American history.
How The Iran Conflict Could Affect 2020
Jan 6 • 47 min
The team discusses the political implication’s of President Trump’s decision to kill Iran’s Maj. Gen. Qassem Suleimani in a drone strike.
The Biggest Political Moments Of 2019
Dec 30, 2019 • 49 min
The podcast crew looks back at the biggest political moments of 2019 and looks ahead to the most pressing questions of 2020.
Eggnog And Listener Questions
Dec 23, 2019 • 47 min
In this holiday installment of the podcast, the crew drinks eggnog and answers questions from listeners.
The House Impeaches President Trump
Dec 18, 2019 • 29 min
President Donald Trump became the third president in American history to be impeached on Thursday. The podcast team discusses how we got here and what comes next.
Do Voters’ Second Choices Matter?
Dec 16, 2019 • 49 min
The crew previews what to expect from this week’s likely impeachment vote and debate how much voters’ second choices matter in the Democratic primary.
Conservatives Win Big In The UK Election
Dec 13, 2019 • 45 min
University of Cambridge political scientists Helen Thompson and David Runciman join the podcast to break down the results of the 2019 British general election.
The Primary According To The Early States
Dec 9, 2019 • 53 min
The crew shares a preview of FiveThirtyEight’s polling averages in the early states. They also discuss the path Trump’s presidency is on.
The Legal Experts And The Polls
Dec 4, 2019 • 42 min
We review the House testimony from legal scholars on whether Trump committed an impeachable offense and check out the results of our polling collaboration with Ipsos.
Emergency Podcast: Harris Drops Out
Dec 3, 2019 • 40 min
The crew reacts to Sen. Kamala Harris’s decision to drop out of the Democratic primary.
Is The Party Deciding?
Dec 2, 2019 • 54 min
The crew looks at which candidates are racking up endorsements and whether there’s a meaningful trend in favor of Biden. They also take stock of Harris’s troubles on the trail
A Very FiveThirtyEight Thanksgiving
Nov 25, 2019 • 59 min
The crew discusses public opinion on impeachment and plays a Thanksgiving-inspired game.
What Went Down In The 5th Democratic Debate
Nov 21, 2019 • 26 min
In a late night podcast, the crew reacts to the fifth Democratic primary debate.
Impeachment Hearings Day 4: Sondland Testifies
Nov 20, 2019 • 30 min
The crew reacts to U.S. Ambassador to the E.U. Gordon Sondland’s testimony in the fourth day of public impeachment hearings.
Impeachment Hearings Day 3: The Phone Call
Nov 19, 2019 • 24 min
The crew discusses what went down during the third day of public impeachment hearings.
The Buttigieg Bump 2.0
Nov 18, 2019 • 52 min
The crew discusses the latest polling out of Iowa, showing a shakeup in the race there. They also ask why education levels are such a key factor in how people vote.
Yovanovich Testifies, Trump Attacks
Nov 15, 2019 • 29 min
The crew reacts to the second day of public impeachment hearings.
Public Impeachment Hearings Begin
Nov 13, 2019 • 37 min
The crew reacts to the first of many public impeachment hearings on President Trump’s attempt to pressure Ukraine to investigate a political rival.
The FiveThirtyNATE Podcast
Nov 11, 2019 • 64 min
The New York Times’s Nate Cohn joins the podcast to discuss battleground state polling, the Electoral College and the state of the Democratic primary.
What The 2019 Election Results Mean
Nov 6, 2019 • 38 min
FiveThirtyEight election analysts Nathaniel Rakich and Geoffrey Skelley break down the results of the 2019 elections.
Free-For-All In Iowa
Nov 4, 2019 • 51 min
The crew previews the key elections on the ballot this Election Day and debates the role healthcare is playing in Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s plateauing in national polls.
Exit Interview: Tim Ryan
Oct 31, 2019 • 36 min
Rep. Tim Ryan exited the presidential race last week. We ask him to be candid about his experience in an “exit interview.”
What Should Republicans Do?
Oct 28, 2019 • 61 min
The crew debates the savviest political strategy for Senate Republicans on the issue of impeachment. They also discuss the death of al-Baghdadi and disagreement in the polls.
The Taylor Testimony
Oct 23, 2019 • 23 min
The crew discusses the significance of U.S. envoy to Ukraine William Taylor’s testimony. He claimed Trump made military aid contingent on politically-motivated investigations.
Medicare For Fall
Oct 21, 2019 • 52 min
The podcast crew discusses the politics of Medicare for All in the Democratic primary. They also look at the latest impeachment polling.
Warren In The Hot Seat
Oct 16, 2019 • 38 min
The crew reacts to the fourth Democratic primary debate.
What To Look For In The 4th Debate
Oct 14, 2019 • 57 min
The crew discusses the latest impeachment polling and previews the fourth Democratic primary debate.
Impeachment 101
Oct 10, 2019 • 42 min
Law professor Kate Shaw joins the podcast to discuss the laws and history behind impeachment and how they apply to today.
Is Ukraine Getting Worse For Trump?
Oct 7, 2019 • 59 min
The podcast crew reviews the latest news in the impeachment inquiry and discusses the two parties’ strategies. They also ask if Joe Biden is the Democratic frontrunner.
How TV’s Evolution Explains Our Politics
Oct 3, 2019 • 36 min
New York Times TV critic James Poniewozik joins the podcast to explain how changes in television over the past forty years have shaped American politics.
Impeachment Is Becoming More Popular
Sep 30, 2019 • 50 min
The crew looks at how public opinion on impeaching President Trump has changed in the week since Speaker Pelosi announced a formal inquiry.
The Whistleblower’s Complaint
Sep 26, 2019 • 35 min
It’s only been 48 hours since we last recorded, but a lot has happened. We discuss the release of Trump’s Ukraine call summary, the whistleblower’s complaint and more.
What An Impeachment Inquiry Might Mean
Sep 24, 2019 • 24 min
The crew gathers to discuss Nancy Pelosi’s decision to launch an impeachment inquiry against President Trump. How’d we get here, and what might come next?
Are Democrats Ready To Impeach Trump?
Sep 23, 2019 • 48 min
The crew discusses how the Ukraine story could change the impeachment conversation for Democrats. They also debate whether Elizabeth Warren is now the frontrunner in Iowa.
We Ran Into Andrew Yang At The Airport
Sep 19, 2019 • 26 min
Nate and Galen ran into Andrew Yang waiting for the same return flight from the debate in Houston last week. They asked if he’d record a podcast and he obliged.
The State Of *Both* 2020 Primaries
Sep 16, 2019 • 54 min
The crew discusses the latest post-debate polling and what the GOP primary is teaching us about Trump’s electoral strengths and weaknesses.
What Went Down In The Third Democratic Debate
Sep 13, 2019 • 35 min
The crew reacts to the third Democratic primary debate from the spin room floor in Houston, Texas.
How To Own The Debate
Sep 9, 2019 • 56 min
The crew discusses possible strategies for the candidates on stage in the Democratic primary debate on Thursday.
The Gerrymandering Fight Moves To The States
Sep 5, 2019 • 26 min
A North Carolina court panel threw out the state’s legislative maps as a partisan gerrymander this week. Nancy Martorano Miller and Dave Wasserman discuss the implications.
And Then There Were Ten
Sep 3, 2019 • 44 min
The crew discusses the dynamic of the third Democratic primary debate, in which ten candidates will face off on a single night. They also ask: good use or bad use of polling?
A Constitutional Crisis In Britain?
Aug 29, 2019 • 45 min
Helen Thompson and David Runciman join the podcast to discuss Boris Johnson’s suspension of parliament and the politics of Brexit.
The Winnowing Begins
Aug 26, 2019 • 48 min
The crew takes a look at who has dropped out of the Democratic primary and why. They also assess the political risk of a hypothetical downturn in the economy.
The 2019 Elections
Aug 22, 2019 • 30 min
FiveThirtyEight elections analysts Nathaniel Rakich and Geoffrey Skelley join the podcast to discuss the races on the ballot in 2019 and the current national environment.
Elizabeth Warren’s Comeback
Aug 19, 2019 • 55 min
The crew discusses how Elizabeth Warren gained ground after polling fifth or sixth nationally a handful of months ago. They also ask what’s changed since the El Paso shooting.
Trump’s Trade War Puts His Biggest Asset At Risk
Aug 15, 2019 • 37 min
International economist Mary Lovely joins the podcast to discuss the effects of President Trump’s trade war with China.
How Much Does Iowa Matter?
Aug 12, 2019 • 58 min
Following a weekend during which the 2020 candidates flooded Iowa, the crew debates the significance of the first-in-the-nation caucus state.
“The Best Pollster In Politics”
Aug 8, 2019 • 34 min
Ann Selzer, who conducts the “Iowa Poll” and has an A+ rating in FiveThirtyEight’s pollster rankings, talks about the challenges of polling Iowa in 2020.
Can Trump’s Words Incite Violence?
Aug 5, 2019 • 53 min
The podcast team discusses the weekend’s mass shootings and the relationship between political rhetoric and violence.
Live From Detroit: The State Of The Race Post-Debates
Aug 2, 2019 • 71 min
The crew discusses the debates and the state of the 2020 Democratic primary race in downtown Detroit.
Democrats Battle It Out
Jul 31, 2019 • 34 min
The left and moderate flanks of the Democratic Party debated big ideas in the second primary debate. Nate and Galen react from downtown Detroit.
Are Democrats Moving Too Far Left?
Jul 29, 2019 • 54 min
The crew debates the risks for 2020 Democrats of taking unpopular positions on issues like healthcare and immigration. The also discuss Democrats’ next steps on impeachment.
Mueller Talks
Jul 24, 2019 • 36 min
After months of back-and-forth with Democrats, former special counsel Robert Mueller testified before the U.S. House Judiciary and Intelligence committees on Wednesday.
Racial Resentment As A Political Strategy
Jul 22, 2019 • 59 min
The podcast crew discusses the role that racial resentment played in the 2016 and 2018 elections and debates whether Trump could use it to his advantage in 2020.
Who’s Going To Win Pennsylvania In 2020?
Jul 18, 2019 • 38 min
The podcast heads to Pennsylvania to discuss the state’s political trends and what they mean for 2020.
Trump’s Racist Tweets
Jul 15, 2019 • 54 min
The podcast team discusses Trump’s tweets appearing to target a group of congresswomen of color. They also debate the odds of a Democrat winning a Senate seat in Kentucky.
Exit Interview: Eric Swalwell
Jul 11, 2019 • 35 min
Rep. Eric Swalwell exited the presidential race this week. We ask him to be candid about his experience in an “exit interview.”
Is Biden Still The Front-Runner?
Jul 8, 2019 • 47 min
The podcast crew debates whether Joe Biden is still the front-runner in the Democratic primary race. They also discuss Rep. Justin Amash’s decision to leave the GOP.
The Verdict On The Debates
Jul 1, 2019 • 62 min
The podcast crew digs into data about how voters reacted to the first debates. They also discuss the new sexual assault accusation against President Trump.
Harris Wins Narrative. We’ll See About The Voters.
Jun 28, 2019 • 37 min
The crew reacts to night two of the first Democratic primary debates.
What Went Down At The First Democratic Debate
Jun 27, 2019 • 35 min
The podcast team reacts to night one of the first Democratic primary debates.
Lanes Emerge In The Democratic Primary
Jun 24, 2019 • 51 min
The crew re-assesses the significance of “lanes” in the Democratic primary and looks at Trump’s Iran strategy.
What’s At Stake In The Final Week Of SCOTUS Decisions
Jun 21, 2019 • 38 min
Legal reporter Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux joins the podcast to discuss key decisions the Supreme Court has made so far, and what is at stake in the final 12 cases.
Who Is Persuadable In 2020?
Jun 17, 2019 • 53 min
As Trump kicks off his reelection campaign, the crew debates who is persuadable in 2020. They also discuss the Democratic primary debate lineups.
A Republican Strategist’s Guide To 2020
Jun 13, 2019 • 44 min
Republican strategist and pollster Bill McInturff joins the podcast to discuss his report, “What Republicans Need to Know as We Move Toward the 2020 Election.”
Is Elizabeth Warren Surging?
Jun 10, 2019 • 51 min
The crew examines whether the popular narrative of Elizabeth Warren’s breakthrough is reflected in the data. They also discuss why Joe Biden backtracked on the Hyde Amendment.
The D.C. Statehood Episode
Jun 6, 2019 • 39 min
Representative Eleanor Holmes Norton and Majority Leader Steny Hoyer join the podcast to discuss Democrats’ efforts to make D.C. the nation’s 51st state.
Are Voters Sexist?
Jun 3, 2019 • 53 min
The crew discusses what we know about how voters respond to female candidates and how the women running for president in 2020 are navigating questions about their identity.
Are Nationalist Victories Around The World Connected?
May 31, 2019 • 33 min
University of Cambridge professors Helen Thompson and David Runciman join the podcast to discuss what appear to be a string of similar outcomes in elections around the world.
Is Pelosi’s Trump Strategy Working?
May 28, 2019 • 40 min
The crew discusses whether last week’s back-and-forth between Pelosi and Trump achieved its reported goal. They also look at head-to-head polling in the Democratic primary.
What We Can Learn From Tracking Trump’s Falsehoods
May 23, 2019 • 30 min
The Washington Post has been tracking every false or misleading claim Trump has made while in office. In this episode, we dig into the database.
Have Americans Changed Their Minds On Abortion?
May 20, 2019 • 59 min
The politics team examines Bill de Blasio’s theory of the case, the rationale behind seemingly conflicting numbers on abortion and ask if Democrats can win the Senate in 2020.
Why Some States Are Passing New Abortion Restrictions
May 16, 2019 • 27 min
Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey signed the most restrictive abortion law in recent U.S. history into law on Wednesday. It’s part of a larger trend of changing state level abortion law.
The Politics Of Impeaching Trump
May 13, 2019 • 45 min
The crew debates the possible political repercussions for Democrats of moving to impeach Trump. They also look at how some on the left have tried to discredit a CNN poll.
Live From Houston: What Happened To The Bush GOP?
May 9, 2019 • 73 min
In a live taping from Houston, Texas, the crew discusses how and why the GOP has changed from the party of Bush to the party of Trump. They also play a 2020 primary draft.
Live From Austin: Will Texas Be A Battleground In 2020?
May 6, 2019 • 56 min
The crew is in Austin, Texas, where they debate whether the Lone Star State will be a battleground in 2020. They also play a heated round of trivia.
Mueller’s Letter To Barr
May 1, 2019 • 28 min
Special Counsel Mueller wrote AG Barr a letter expressing concerns about how he’d characterized the report’s findings to Congress. The podcast crew reacts.
Peto Buttichar 2020
Apr 29, 2019 • 48 min
The crew discusses the Democratic Party’s reaction to Joe Biden entering the presidential race. They also ask why Sanders and Warren don’t have more crossover support.
How Joe Biden Could Win
Apr 25, 2019 • 33 min
Former Vice President Joe Biden announced his candidacy for president on Thursday. The crew discusses the reasons he could win the nomination or come up short.
We Have The Mueller Report. Now What?
Apr 22, 2019 • 50 min
The crew discusses how the various players are positioning themselves now that the Mueller report is public. Plus, the Democratic primary field expanded again.
Emergency Podcast: The Mueller Report
Apr 18, 2019 • 45 min
The podcast team reacts to the release of the redacted Mueller report.
The State Of The Democratic Primary
Apr 15, 2019 • 47 min
As the first quarter of 2019 comes to a close, the crew gives an assessment of state of the 2020 Democratic primary.
How Good Are FiveThirtyEight Forecasts?
Apr 11, 2019 • 30 min
Our “Model Talk” series returns briefly to discuss the performance of FiveThirtyEight’s forecast models over the past decade. We crunched the numbers and the results are in!
Do Democrats Want An Outsider In 2020?
Apr 8, 2019 • 54 min
The crew debates the appeal of a political outsider for Democrats in 2020. They also look at the class divide among white voters how that affects their political behavior.
The Electoral College Episode
Apr 4, 2019 • 41 min
Julia Azari and Seth Masket join the podcast to discuss the arguments for and against the Electoral College and how likely it is to actually change.
What Will Biden Do?
Apr 1, 2019 • 43 min
Joe Biden has been accused of inappropriately touching a former legislator at a campaign event. Will that change his calculus about whether to get in the race?
Can Statistics Solve Gerrymandering?
Mar 28, 2019 • 57 min
Mathematician Moon Duchin joins Nate Silver and Galen Druke to discuss a method for spotting partisan gerrymandering that the Supreme Court considered Tuesday.
Life After The Mueller Report
Mar 25, 2019 • 50 min
The crew reacts to the principal findings of the Mueller report, according to Attorney General Bill Barr.
Emergency Podcast: Mueller Has Filed His Report
Mar 22, 2019 • 13 min
In this emergency podcast, Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux joins Galen Druke to discuss what comes next now that Special Counsel Mueller has filed his report.
Live From NY: It’s A 2020 Draft!
Mar 21, 2019 • 64 min
In a live taping of the podcast, the crew competes in a draft of the 2020 primary candidates. They also play “Good Use of Polling or Bad Use of Polling?”
Ranking 2020 Rollouts
Mar 18, 2019 • 42 min
The crew takes stock of which candidates have done the best job introducing themselves in the early months of the primary.
The Moment Of Truth For Brexit
Mar 15, 2019 • 38 min
David Runciman and Helen Thompson from the British “Talking Politics” podcast discuss the week in Brexit and what comes next.
How Beto O’Rourke Could Win
Mar 14, 2019 • 34 min
Former El Paso congressman Beto O’Rourke is running for president. The crew discusses how he could win — or lose — the Democratic primary.
How Divided Are Democrats?
Mar 11, 2019 • 51 min
The podcast crew analyzes the divisions within the Democratic Party and makes sense of why potential 2020 candidates like Sherrod Brown decided not to run.
Iowa And New Hampshire Can Go To Hell
Mar 7, 2019 • 30 min
Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada. Why do those four states vote first and does the lineup make sense?
Should We Cancel The Electoral College?
Mar 4, 2019 • 49 min
The podcast crew discusses the latest candidate announcements, whether party endorsements matter, and the merits of the Electoral College.
What We Learned From Cohen’s Testimony
Feb 27, 2019 • 30 min
The podcast team reacts to a day of testimony from President Trump’s former lawyer Michael Cohen.
Our Best (Or Worst) Show
Feb 25, 2019 • 45 min
The podcast crew discusses absentee ballot fraud in North Carolina and the threat of a primary challenge to Trump. They also play a round of “Guess What Americans Think.”
All The President’s Investigations
Feb 22, 2019 • 28 min
The word is that Mueller will wrap up his investigation next week. Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux shares an overview of the legal troubles that will continue to follow the president.
How Bernie Sanders Could Win
Feb 19, 2019 • 47 min
Sen. Bernie Sanders is running for president. The team describes both his path to success and failure in the primary. They also follow up on Trump’s emergency declaration.
National Emergency Podcast
Feb 14, 2019 • 45 min
The crew reacts to the news that President Trump plans to declare a national emergency at the southern border. Vox’s Dara Lind also joins to discuss the border security deal.
How Amy Klobuchar Could Win
Feb 11, 2019 • 47 min
The crew discusses the arguments for and against Sen. Amy Klobuchar winning the Democratic nomination. They also assess the politics of the Green New Deal.
The Mess In Virginia
Feb 7, 2019 • 29 min
Democratic politics in Virginia are in upheaval. The team reacts to the scandals facing each of the top three Democrats in the state — the governor, lt. governor and AG.
The Politics Of Taxing The Rich
Feb 4, 2019 • 36 min
Some Democrats are floating new taxes on the super rich. The crew discusses the politics of those proposals. They also assess Cory Booker’s path to the nomination.
The Perot Effect
Feb 2, 2019 • 40 min
What effect do third party candidates have in a two party system? This is an audio documentary about Ross Perot and the 1992 election that originally aired in October 2016.
Do Americans Want A Candidate Like Howard Schultz?
Jan 31, 2019 • 34 min
In light of Howard Schultz’s possible presidential run as a “centrist independent,” the crew discusses the appetite for such a candidate among Americans.
Shutdown Lessons (And 2020 Announcements)
Jan 28, 2019 • 52 min
The crew discusses the political repercussions of the government shutdown and considers two Democratic presidential contenders — Pete Buttigieg and Tulsi Gabbard.
What To Make Of Roger Stone’s Indictment
Jan 25, 2019 • 15 min
In this installment of Mueller Talk, Amelia Thomson-Deveaux discusses the implications of longtime Trump adviser Roger Stone’s indictment.
How Kamala Harris Could Win
Jan 22, 2019 • 53 min
The crew analyzes what Harris’s path to the nomination could look like. They also react to Mueller’s statement on the Buzzfeed report and discuss the role of the young left.
Emergency Podcast: The Suborn Identity
Jan 18, 2019 • 29 min
In this emergency installment, the crew reacts to a Buzzfeed News report that President Trump directed his lawyer, Michael Cohen, to lie to Congress.
How Kirsten Gillibrand Could Win
Jan 16, 2019 • 37 min
New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand is the latest in the Democratic field to make official moves toward running for president. The crew discusses her case for the nomination. Note: At 17:40, Nate Silver’s audio may be a bit unclear. He says, “It’s not…
How Julian Castro Could Win
Jan 14, 2019 • 46 min
The crew discusses what Julian Castro’s path to the Democratic nomination could look like. They also lay out a rubric for evaluating candidate strengths and talk shutdown.
Will Trump Face A Primary Challenge?
Jan 10, 2019 • 29 min
Is Trump in danger of a serious challenge for the Republican nomination in 2020? Perry Bacon Jr. and Julia Azari join the podcast to discuss.
How Elizabeth Warren Could Win
Jan 7, 2019 • 54 min
The crew discusses the paths to Elizabeth Warren winning — and losing — the 2020 Democratic nomination. They also look at the political repercussions of the shutdown.
The Gerrymandering Project: Arizona
Dec 31, 2018 • 38 min
In 2018, more states decided to put independent commissions in charge of redistricting. Arizona serves as an example of some of the challenges those commissions can face.
Our 2018 Politics Awards
Dec 24, 2018 • 56 min
The crew looks back on the year in politics and gives out made up awards. They also share resolutions for 2019.
Emergency Podcast: Mattis Is Out, Shutdown Is On (?)
Dec 21, 2018 • 28 min
In an emergency episode of the podcast, the crew discusses Defense Secretary Jim Mattis’s departure and the looming government shutdown.
Should Democrats Play Dirty?
Dec 17, 2018 • 50 min
Democrats backed off a plan that would gerrymander New Jersey, while Republicans went ahead with a power grab in Wisconsin. The crew discusses why the parties play differently
The Brexit Episode
Dec 13, 2018 • 28 min
Two political science professors from the University of Cambridge join the podcast to explain what happened in Britain this week and what comes next.
Trump’s Turbulent Week
Dec 10, 2018 • 42 min
President Trump is continuing to face possible legal trouble over campaign finance violations, meanwhile the White House is in the middle of another staffing shakeup.
Something Is Fishy In North Carolina
Dec 3, 2018 • 54 min
The crew reflects on how politics have changed since President H. W. Bush’s time in office. They also speak with Prof. Michael Bitzer about possible election fraud in NC-09.
Emergency Podcast: Cohen Is Cooperating With Mueller
Nov 29, 2018 • 21 min
In an emergency installment, the crew reacts to news that Michael Cohen pleaded guilty for lying to Congress about the details of a potential Trump project in Moscow.
This Is Mueller Talk!
Nov 29, 2018 • 30 min
After months of silence, the Mueller investigation is making news again. Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux joins the podcast to make sense of a big week of revelations.
Can A Democrat Win In Mississippi?
Nov 26, 2018 • 52 min
The final Senate election of 2018 is scheduled for Tuesday in Mississippi. The crew discusses the fault lines at play of race, geography and class.
Will Pelosi Be Replaced?
Nov 19, 2018 • 54 min
The Democrats have a majority in the House, now they need a Speaker. The crew discusses whether Nancy Pelosi will be re-elected and what the vote says about the party.
How Our Model Did
Nov 15, 2018 • 42 min
In this post-mortem episode of “Model Talk,” Nate discusses how our forecasts did and how we can improve them going forward.
A Post-Midterms 2020 Draft… Live!
Nov 12, 2018 • 52 min
Live from New York, the team ranks the politicians most likely to win the 2020 Democratic primary. They also debrief on the latest results from the midterms.
Midterms Review
Nov 8, 2018 • 34 min
The team looks at some the underlying data from the 2018 midterms to understand the trends at play.
Emergency Podcast: Sessions Is Out
Nov 7, 2018 • 26 min
President Trump has fired Attorney General Jeff Sessions and is replacing him with someone who may curtain the Mueller investigation. The crew reacts.
Election Night Wrap-Up: Write Your Own Narrative
Nov 7, 2018 • 30 min
Clare Malone, Micah Cohen, and Jody Avirgan gather in the podcast studio at the end of a long election night to talk about what we learned and what’s next.
A Guide To Election Night
Nov 6, 2018 • 21 min
We walk you through the key races to watch, hour by hour, as the polls close on election night.
The Final Countdown
Nov 5, 2018 • 51 min
The crew reviews the forecasts and other indicators for a final time before Election Day. They also ask whether Trump’s appeals on immigration will help Republicans.
How To Judge The Model’s Performance
Nov 2, 2018 • 36 min
In this installment of “Model Talk,” Nate Silver explains how to judge the model’s performance, given that we expect the less likely scenario to happen sometimes.
Debating Our Own House Forecast
Nov 1, 2018 • 22 min
We throw caution to the wind and debate whether to “buy, sell, or hold” the odds in our House forecast.
Debating Our Own Senate Forecast
Oct 31, 2018 • 31 min
We throw caution to the wind and debate whether to “buy, sell, or hold” the odds in our Senate forecast.
The Most Important Races You Aren’t Watching
Oct 30, 2018 • 36 min
There are over 6,000 state legislative races on the ballot this fall and they’ll play a big role in Americans’ lives. Over a hundred ballot measures are also up for a vote.
Do Toxic Politics Lead To Violence?
Oct 29, 2018 • 46 min
The crew reacts to the spate of violence over the past week and asks whether toxic politics are to blame.
The Early Vote Is Not In The Model
Oct 26, 2018 • 32 min
In this installment of Model Talk, Nate Silver explains why he doesn’t use the early vote to help forecast election results. He also answers questions from listeners.
The Campaign Ads Dominating 2018
Oct 25, 2018 • 37 min
The parties are spending billions on advertising this cycle. The team looks at which topics are mentioned the most in order to understand the parties’ priorities.
How Voting Laws Will Affect The Midterms
Oct 23, 2018 • 37 min
New voting laws in Georgia and North Dakota are under the spotlight in the run up to Election Day. We discuss how those and other voting laws can affect elections.
These Fundraising Numbers Are Unprecedented
Oct 22, 2018 • 49 min
House Democrats have about a two to one advantage over Republicans in individual contributions. The crew debates how to make sense of that historic advantage.
The Governors Forecast Is Live
Oct 17, 2018 • 37 min
In this installment of Model Talk, Nate Silver discusses key races in the newly released governors forecast and answers listener questions.
Early Indicators Of Who Is Running In 2020
Oct 15, 2018 • 54 min
The team considers whether Democrats can perform well in the Midterms based on their advantages among women alone. The also look at early indicators of who is running in 2020.
The Forecasts Are Diverging
Oct 11, 2018 • 27 min
In this installment of Model Talk, Nate Silver explains the hypotheses for why the House and Senate forecasts are diverging and answers questions from listeners.
Live: Are Any Of The Post-Kavanaugh Narratives Right?
Oct 8, 2018 • 58 min
At a live show in DC, the crew debates the political consequences of the Kavanaugh episode. They also weigh the importance of tipping point Senate races and play a game.
Collins Says Yes On Kavanaugh
Oct 5, 2018 • 27 min
The crew discusses how Brett Kavanaugh’s all-but-certain confirmation to the Supreme Court might affect the midterms.